Refining perception-based farmer typologies with the analysis of past census data

Guillem, Eleonore; Barnes, Andrew P.; Rounsevell, Mark; Renwick, Alan

doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.06.020

Cited by 71 publications

(58 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…This would require that tendencies to change farming type are related to the farm(er) properties as was done for tendencies to sell or buy land. Examples of such exercises can be found in (Guillem et al 2012;Karali et al 2013a, b). The strong empirical grounding of the model had the additional advantage of supporting communication of the model results to stakeholders (farmers, farmer union representatives, provincial policy makers, nature organizations, and estate holders from within the area).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Land-use change arising from rural land exchange: an agent-based simulation model

et al. 2014

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Introduction Land exchange can be a major factor driving land-use change in regions with high pressure on land, but is generally not incorporated in land-use change models. Here we present an agent-based model to simulate land-use change arising from land exchange between multiple agent types representing farmers, nature organizations, and estate owners. Methods The RULEX model (Rural Land EXchange) was calibrated and applied to a 300 km 2 case study area in the east of the Netherlands. Decision rules about which actor will sell and buy land, as well as which specific land to buy or sell are based on historical observations, interviews, and choice experiments.Results A reconstruction of land-use change for the period 2001-2009 demonstrates that RULEX reproduces most observed land-use trends and patterns. Given that RULEX simulates only one mechanism of land-use change, i.e. land exchange, it is conservative in simulating change. Conclusions With this model, we demonstrate the potential of incorporating land market processes in an agent-based, land-use change model. This supports understanding of land-use change that is brought about by ownership change, which is an important process in areas where pressure on land is high. The soundness of the process representation was corroborated by stakeholders within the study area. Land exchange models can be used to assess the impact of changes in climate, markets, and policy on land use change, and help to increase effectiveness of alternative land purchasing strategies by stakeholders or spatial planning policy.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Land-use change arising from rural land exchange: an agent-based simulation model

et al. 2014

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Section: Developing the Agent Typologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Policy relevance can be increased if the typology is related or embedded in available farm census data and observed land-use choices [62]. Empirical research increasingly highlights the importance of considering multiple objectives [28,[63][64][65] as well as attitudes and preferences towards more nature-friendly farming when representing farmers' decision-making [62,[65][66][67]. In addition, farm diversification and associated constraints on labor availability (and other aspects of part-time farming) are thought to strongly affect farming system development and decisions on land abandonment, particularly in mountain regions, and have been highlighted as important elements in recent farmer typologies [68,69].…”

Section: Developing the Agent Typologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity Analysis of a Land-Use Change Model with and without Agents to Assess Land Abandonment and Long-Term Re-Forestation in a Swiss Mountain Region

Brändle

Langendijk

Peter³

et al. 2015

Land

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Land abandonment and the subsequent re-forestation are important drivers behind the loss of ecosystem services in mountain regions. Agent-based models can help to identify global change impacts on farmland abandonment and can test policy and management options to counteract this development. Realigning the representation of human decision making with time scales of ecological processes such as reforestation presents a major challenge in this context. Models either focus on the agent-specific behavior anchored in the current generation of farmers at the expense of representing longer scale environmental processes or they emphasize the simulation of long-term economic and forest developments OPEN ACCESSLand 2015, 4 476 where representation of human behavior is simplified in time and space. In this context, we compare the representation of individual and aggregated decision-making in the same model structure and by doing so address some implications of choosing short or long term time horizons in land-use modeling. Based on survey data, we integrate dynamic agents into a comparative static economic sector supply model in a Swiss mountain region. The results from an extensive sensitivity analysis show that this agent-based land-use change model can reproduce observed data correctly and that both model versions are sensitive to the same model parameters. In particular, in both models the specification of opportunity costs determines the extent of production activities and land-use changes by restricting the output space. Our results point out that the agent-based model can capture short and medium term developments in land abandonment better than the aggregated version without losing its sensitivity to important socio-economic drivers. For comparative static approaches, extensive sensitivity analysis with respect to opportunity costs, i.e., the measure of benefits forgone due to alternative uses of labor is essential for the assessment of the impact of climate change on land abandonment and re-forestation in mountain regions.

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“…The grouping of farms in homogeneous classes was carried out using multivariate analyses (Gaspar et al, 2011;Guillem et al, 2012;Toro-Mujica et al, 2012). The analysis was performed in three stages, as follows: review and selection of variables, factor analysis, and cluster analysis.…”

Section: Typological Classificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Factors with an eigenvalue >1 were kept, as suggested by Uriel & Aldás (2005). The varimax rotation was applied to these factors to facilitate interpretation (Guillem et al, 2012).…”

Section: Group I: Cereal-sheep Mixed Systemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in the pastoral sheep systems of semi-arid Mediterranean areas: association with common agricultural policy reform and implications for sustainability

Toro-Mújica

Aguilar

Vera

et al. 2015

Span. j. agric. res.

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The dynamics of sheep systems the Mediterranean region have been influenced by reforms coming from the Common Agricultural Policy, and the general economic evolution of markets. The aim of this study was the analysis of the structural changes that occurred between 1999 and 2009, and the identification of future implications for the sheep systems in Andalusia region, Spain. Analysis of the structural changes allowed the generation of strategic information, identified trends that should suggest new rural policies and changes that are likely to have social and environmental impacts, and lastly, prioritize future research. The application of multivariate methodology allowed clustering the farm population into four groups. The typology of these systems was determined by variables related to the sheep subsystem, by the set of agricultural activities, and by changes in swine husbandry, within a context of changes in land tenure and the drive for agricultural intensification. Major modifications of extant systems included a 42% reduction in the number of farms, a decrease in sheep numbers, replacement of native rangelands with improved pastures, olive trees and orchards, a reduction of traditional extensive pastoral activities, and increases in hog production in Dehesa grasslands. Given the historical economic and social importance of the sheep-cereal system, the observed substantial modifications of land use suggest a need to assess their consequences in terms of social and environmental impacts, as well as their implications for climate change.

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Refining perception-based farmer typologies with the analysis of past census data

Cited by 71 publications

References 58 publications

Land-use change arising from rural land exchange: an agent-based simulation model

Land-use change arising from rural land exchange: an agent-based simulation model

Sensitivity Analysis of a Land-Use Change Model with and without Agents to Assess Land Abandonment and Long-Term Re-Forestation in a Swiss Mountain Region

Changes in the pastoral sheep systems of semi-arid Mediterranean areas: association with common agricultural policy reform and implications for sustainability

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