Refugee Return and Conflict: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

Blair, Christopher; Wright, Austin L.

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3885937

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 69 publications

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“…Quantitatively, I take a number of steps detailed below to rule out confounding stemming from unit differences in TIF usage. In particular, I show that similar results hold: (1) when controlling for the lagged share of emplaced IEDs found and cleared before detonation—a close proxy for counterinsurgent quality and tips (Blair and Wright 2022); (2) in the post-surge period (Figure 3), when shortages of police and Category II interpreters were largely rectified; and (3) I conduct a bounding exercise to assess sensitivity to omitted variables (section A7).…”

Section: Determinants Of Spending On Detainee Releasementioning

confidence: 69%

“…Third, the violence-reducing effect of detainee release payments is driven mostly by reductions in direct fire and improvised explosive device (IED) attacks. These are the types of insurgent attacks that are more sensitive to civilian informing (Blair and Wright 2022; Condra and Wright 2019), so this finding suggests detainee release payments reduce insurgent violence by increasing the flow of information from local civilians to counterinsurgent forces.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

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Restitution or Retribution? Detainee Payments and Insurgent Violence

Blair

2022

Journal of Conflict Resolution

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Counterinsurgents frequently rely on mass arrests to impede rebel operations, but in so doing, risk detaining innocent civilians. Wrongful detention can backfire, fueling insurgent violence by alienating detainees and their kin. Can counterinsurgents mitigate wrongful detention through targeted compensation? I study this question using project-level data on US payments to individuals deemed innocent and released from Coalition custody in Iraq between 2004 and 2008. Leveraging plausibly exogenous variation in the allocation of detainee release payments, I document a robust, negative association between counterinsurgent compensation for wrongful detention and insurgent violence. The violence-reducing effects of detainee release payments were greatest in Sunni and mixed sectarian areas; for the types of insurgent attacks, most prone to civilian informing; and when detainee release was complemented by other population-centric reforms. These results suggest that post-harm mitigation helps shift civilian perceptions, inducing civilians to share more information with counterinsurgent forces.

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Section: Determinants Of Spending On Detainee Releasementioning

confidence: 69%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Restitution or Retribution? Detainee Payments and Insurgent Violence

Blair

2022

Journal of Conflict Resolution

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What it Takes to Return: UN Peacekeeping and the Safe Return of Displaced People

Bove,

Di Salvatore,

Elia

2024

Journal of Conflict Resolution

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We investigate the impact of UN peacekeeping on voluntary returns and negative attitudes towards displaced persons. We posit that peacekeeping missions can have beneficial effects by improving security and alleviating the socio-economic burden imposed by new arrivals on receiving communities. Focusing on the critical case of South Sudan, we combine information on peacekeepers' subnational deployment with high frequency survey data. Our findings suggest that the presence of peacekeepers is more likely to attract individuals seeking to return home, compared to those relocating for other reasons. In addition, peacekeepers positively influence the perceptions of receiving communities regarding the impact of IDPs and refugees on economic opportunities, security conditions, and social cohesion.

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Refugee Return and Conflict: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

Cited by 2 publications

References 69 publications

Restitution or Retribution? Detainee Payments and Insurgent Violence

Restitution or Retribution? Detainee Payments and Insurgent Violence

What it Takes to Return: UN Peacekeeping and the Safe Return of Displaced People

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