Regional integration and export performance of Pakistan: Empirical evidence from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)

Abstract

The study examines export impact of Pakistan’s integration into Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) on its export’s performance. We apply Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) on augmented gravity model to estimate trade data from the period before and after permanent membership with Shanghai Cooperation Organization in 2017. The study aims to explore changes in exports volume and analyze the key mechanism through which Shanghai Cooperation Organization promotes exports. The study assesses that after integration which key exports sector such as agriculture or manufacturing sectors are affected more significantly. The initial findings suggest that SCO integration positively affect and provide access to Central Asian markets, leading to modest but noticeable promotion in exports promotion. In heterogeneity analysis we find that exports of Pakistan are more significant with low and middle-income level countries compared to higher-income level countries. Additionally, exports in the manufacturing sector benefited more than in the agriculture sector. The significant and positive findings of mechanism analysis indicate that the belt and road (B&R) initiative and bilateral trade agreements are the key factors to enhanced exports. The overall impact remains moderated by structural changes in Pakistan economy, such as poor infrastructure, deficiency in energy sector and limited trade relations with its neighbors India and Iran. The study concludes that although the SCO integration has positively promoted exports of Pakistan however, it requires to address domestic economic constraints and capitalize more effectively the benefits of SCO membership through regional cooperation mechanism. For more potential benefits in the region SCO needs to expand B&R connectivity, encourage more trade agreements, and adopt favorable environment to attract high income countries in the organization. The study provides the base for future research in depth analysis of long-term impact of SCO integration on Pakistan exports.