Regional Ionospheric Frequency Domain Characterization and Short-term Forecasting Methods

Abstract

Total electron content (TEC) is an important characteristic parameter of the ionosphere, which has a great impact on applications such as navigation error correction. The paper addresses the need for short- and medium-term forecasting of regional ionospheric TEC. Firstly, we analyze the frequency domain characteristics of ionospheric TEC, and analyze the data in the frequency domain based on the characteristics of trend, periodicity and abruptness of ionospheric TEC changes influenced by solar activity, combined with the Prophet algorithm. Then, according to its frequency domain characteristics, Prophet is used to achieve hour-by-hour prediction. The computer modeling results show that the RMSE of the 7-day forecast is better than 1.262 TECU during the geomagnetically quiet period, and the method is suitable for the short- and medium-term forecasting of ionospheric TEC with good forecast accuracy and time efficiency.