Reliability-based multi-objective optimum design of nonlinear conjunctive use problem; cyclic storage system approach

Afshar, Abbas; Khosravi, Mina; Ostadrahimi, Leila

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125109

Cited by 13 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…Many studies in the literature have demonstrated the importance of a system model in managing aquifer systems and their connected subsystems [92]. Recently, Afshar et al [93] integrated surface water and groundwater into a single cyclic storage system model to simulate a long-term outlook. Barati et al [94] developed a smart groundwater governance system model introducing an index and four indicators, namely equitability, efficiency, sustainability, and democracy.…”

Section: System Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Current Status and Future Directions in Modeling a Transboundary Aquifer: A Case Study of Hueco Bolson

Talchabhadel

McMillan

Palmate

et al. 2021

Water

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The Hueco Bolson aquifer is a binational aquifer shared by the United States of America (USA) and Mexico that is strongly interconnected with the transboundary river, Rio Grande/Rio Bravo. Limited recharge, increasing urbanization, and intensified agriculture have resulted in the over-drafting of groundwater resources and stressed the aquifer, threatening its sustainability if mitigation actions are not taken soon. Research indicates that the aquifer’s hydraulic gradients and flow directions have changed due to the high groundwater withdrawal rates from the two major cities—El Paso (USA) and Ciudad Juarez (Mexico). This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the Hueco Bolson aquifer modeling history and makes a case for future modeling and binational engagement efforts. First, we discuss the evolution of groundwater modeling for Hueco Bolson from the past to recent times. Second, we discuss the main water management issues in the area, including water quality and quantity, stakeholders’ participation, and climate change. To address the challenges of holistic water management, we propose developing a graphical quantitative modeling framework (e.g., system model and Bayesian belief network) to include experts’ opinions and enhance stakeholders’ participation in the model. Though the insights are based on a case study of Hueco Bolson, the approaches discussed in this study can provide new strategies to overcome the challenges of managing a transboundary aquifer.

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Section: System Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Current Status and Future Directions in Modeling a Transboundary Aquifer: A Case Study of Hueco Bolson

Talchabhadel

McMillan

Palmate

et al. 2021

Water

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“…The amount of fall/rise in wells and river reaches can be calculated using the URM method (Afshar et al, 2021). Details of this method are available in the studies of Afshar et al, 2020 andKhosravi et al, 2020. Relation 14 states the basic equation of the URM method.…”

Section: Water Table Fluctuations In Aquifermentioning

confidence: 99%

Conditional Operation Rules For Optimal Conjunctive Use of Surface And Groundwater

Khosravi

Afshar

Molajou

2021

Preprint

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The current study presents an efficient method for deriving precise operation rules from all subsystems of a distributed conjunctive use system (CUS), including aquifer, river, and reservoir. Distributed aquifer simulation has been performed using the URM method. Given that the historical flow time series can only represent one of the possible situations in the future and its use to determine the performance of the CUS is certainly not very reliable, in this study, river flow uncertainties are implicitly considered. To develop the operation rules, the time series of river flow were generated using autoregressive model. Then, the operation optimization model of the system was implemented with the objective function of minimizing water shortage for different river flow time series. 70% of the data was used for model training and 30% for model validation. Finally, using the decision tree algorithm (M5Rules), the conditional operation rules were extracted and compared with the single linear regression operation rules. Using five efficiency criteria CC, MAE, RMSE, RAE, and RRSE, the comparison of conditional and single linear regression operating rules has been done. The results showed that the the conditional operation rules reduces relative absolute error by a minimum of 39% and a maximum of 71%. If the system is operated according to the conditional rules, in the worst case, the amount of water shortage imposed will be 16.61 MCM over ten years.

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“…Drought cycling of SW and GW refers to integrated SW and GW subsystems with full connections [AFSHAR et al 2020;HAROU, LUND 2008]. As mentioned in the introduction, surface and subsurface subsystems can be potentially interconnected as competing for parallel storage facilities, which may reduce many of the problems associated with large-scale surface seizures.…”

Section: Drought Cycling Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It applies single values for the hydrodynamic parameters of an aquifer. However, the distributed method considers the spatial variability over the entire aquifer [AFSHAR et al 2020]. PERALTA et al [1991] and have highlighted that the distributed GW parameters can be incorporated in a management model with two main techniques: embedding method (EM), unit response matrix (URM).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Journal of Water and Land Development

Chen,

Hsieh,

Shichiyakh

2021

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Several conjunctive use approaches can be distinguished. Drought cycling of groundwater (GW) usage and storage relies on more surface water (SW) during wetter years and delivers more water from GW during drought years. This method has the benefit of temporal changes in water availability. Additionally, it is usually desirable in areas with internal variability of SW where surface storage of wet-year surpluses is uneconomical, suffer excessive evaporative losses, or cause unacceptable environmental disruption. In previous studies, the purpose of operating the drought cycling was to reduce operating costs. In these studies, the objective function of the proposed model was to minimise the present value cost derived from the system design and operation to satisfy a predefined demand during a finite planning and operation horizon. However, it is important to consider other objectives in operating water resources systems, including minimising water shortages accurately. Hence, in this study, two scenarios were focused on: 1) minimising water shortagages, 2) minimising operational costs. Pareto solutions are then presented with the objectives of minimising costs and water deficit. In this study, the weighting method has been used to extract Pareto options. The results show that reducing costs from 234 to 100 mln USD will increase water shortage from 9.3 to 11.3 mln m 3 .

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Reliability-based multi-objective optimum design of nonlinear conjunctive use problem; cyclic storage system approach

Cited by 13 publications

References 28 publications

Current Status and Future Directions in Modeling a Transboundary Aquifer: A Case Study of Hueco Bolson

Current Status and Future Directions in Modeling a Transboundary Aquifer: A Case Study of Hueco Bolson

Conditional Operation Rules For Optimal Conjunctive Use of Surface And Groundwater

Journal of Water and Land Development

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