Reliable Prediction on Emerging Energy Supply for National Sustainability and Stability: A Case Study on Coal Bed Gas Supply in China Based on the Dual-LSTM Model

Abstract

Aiming to prevent from the imbalance between supply and demand of energy in which the share of emerging type is rapidly increasing, to predict the supply of emerging energy reliably is significant. However, the expected distribution uncertain and high-noise characteristics of emerging energy supply impede the reliable prediction. The Dual-LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) model was constructed for the characteristic extracting and effective prediction of the expected distribution uncertain high-noise emerging energy supply time series. A case study on coal bed gas supply in China was conducted. Results showed that the Dual-LSTM model effectively solved the the problem of superfluous and non-quantifiable variables in the prediction of coal bed gas supply and extracted the statistical characteristics of expected distribution uncertain and high-noise data samples effectively with a relative error major less than 5% in short-term. Besides, the Dual-LSTM model has a significantly higher prediction accuracy while comparing with ARIMA model and original LSTM model. Ultimately, it is predicted that the year-on-year growth rates of coal bed gas supply of China from January to September, 2021, approximately maintains 75% in average based on the Dual-LSTM model. The Dual-LSTM model provides a reliable statistical model for policy decision to maintain national sustainability and stability. INDEX TERMSImproved deep learning model; Uncertain expected distribution high-noise sample; Emerging energy; Supply-demand stability; Reliable prediction; Time series analysis

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