Research on a Multi-Dimensional Indicator Assessment Model for Evaluating Landslide Risk near Large Alpine Reservoirs

Abstract

Geological disasters in large alpine reservoirs primarily take the form of landslide occurrences and are predominantly induced by slope instability. Presently, risk monitoring and assessment strategies tend to prioritize sudden alerts overlooking progressive trajectories from the onset of creeping deformations within the slope to its critical state preceding landslides. Hence, analyzing landslide safety risks over time demonstrates a significant degree of hysteresis, highlighting the necessity for a comprehensive approach to risk assessment that encompasses both gradual and sudden precursors to landslide events. This study analyzes the factors affecting slope stability and establishes a slope evaluation indicator system that includes terrain morphology, meteorological conditions, the ecological environment, soil conditions, human activity, and external manifestation. It proposes a quantitative model for slope landslide risk assessment based on a fuzzy broad learning system, aiming to accurately assess slopes with different risk levels. The overall assessment accuracy rate reaches 92.08%. This multi-dimensional risk assessment model provides long-term monitoring of slope conditions and scientific guidance on landslide risk management and disaster prevention and mitigation on a long time scale for risky slopes in reservoir areas.