Research on Enhanced Orbit Prediction Techniques Utilizing Multiple Sets of Two-Line Element

Abstract

Acquiring accurate space object orbits is crucial for many applications such as satellite tracking, space debris detection, and collision avoidance. The widely used two-line element (TLE) method estimates the position and velocity of objects in space, but its accuracy can be limited by various factors. A combination of multiple TLEs and advanced modeling techniques such as batch least squares differential correction and high-precision numerical propagators can significantly improve TLE accuracy and reliability, ensuring better space object surveillance. Previous studies analyzed additional factors that may influence TLE accuracy and evaluated the accuracy of Starlink TLE using precise ephemeris data from SpaceX. The results indicate that utilizing multiple TLEs for precise orbit determination can significantly enhance the performance of orbit prediction methods, particularly when compared to SGP4. By leveraging 10-day Starlink TLEs, the accuracy of 5-day predictions can be improved by approximately twofold. Additionally, producing two pseudo-observations within an orbital period near the TLE epoch yields the greatest effect on prediction accuracy, with this distribution of pseudo-observations increasing accuracy by approximately 10% compared to a uniform distribution. Further research can explore more data fusion and machine learning approaches to optimize operations in space.

A Case Study on the Effect of Atmospheric Density Calibration on Orbit Predictions with Sparse Angular Data

“…Previous research has indicated that using two observations from a single station separated by 24 h based on direction (azimuth/elevation) can lead to non-convergence in OD due to the unknown ballistic coefficient being solved as an additional parameter [5,6]. One method to resolve divergence is to include TLE-derived orbits as observations with small weights during the OD process [7,8]. Although this approach can solve the divergence problem, the resulting OD may have limited practical value due to large errors.…”