Reservoir operation using system dynamics under climate change impacts: a case study of Yamchi reservoir, Iran

Zarghami, Mahdi; Fotookian, Mohammad Reza; Safari, Nasim; Aslanzadeh, Aydin

doi:10.1007/s12517-016-2676-3

Cited by 12 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Further, among existing system dynamics models of climate change, many include food systems‐related components, which could be used to link mechanisms of climate change to those that produce undernutrition and obesity outcomes. Often these models include agricultural water demand or use, crop yield and production, agriculture‐related income or profit, land use, agricultural energy demand or use, or livestock population dynamics . Notably, two studies include food consumption broadly, and another two include consumption disaggregated by types of food, allowing for the possibility of linking dietary patterns to climate change, undernutrition, and/or obesity in the latter.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The model developed by Liu et al 48 could be expanded to disaggregate new physical activity space construction by whether the built environment is changed in a way (eg, facilitates active transport opportunities) that mitigates greenhouse gas emissions.Further, among existing system dynamics models of climate change, many include food systems-related components, which could be used to link mechanisms of climate change to those that produce undernutrition and obesity outcomes. Often these models include agricultural water demand or use,[57][58][59][60][61][62][63][64][65][66][67][68][69][70][71][72] crop yield and production, 62,65,73-80 agriculture-related income or profit,57,58,65,77,81 land use,73,74,76,82,83 agricultural energy demand or use,80,[84][85][86] or livestock population dynamics 57,58,81. Notably, two studies include food…”

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confidence: 99%

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A systematic review of system dynamics and agent‐based obesity models: Evaluating obesity as part of the global syndemic

et al. 2019

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Summary The problem of obesity has recently been reframed as part of the global syndemic—the co‐occurring, interacting pandemics of obesity, undernutrition, and climate change that are driven by common underlying societal drivers. System science modeling approaches may help clarify how these shared drivers operate and the best ways to address them. The objective of this paper was to determine to what extent existing agent‐based and system dynamics computational models of obesity provide insights into the shared drivers of the global syndemic. Peer‐reviewed studies published until July 2018 were identified from Scopus, Web of Science, and PubMed databases. Thirty‐eight studies representing 30 computational models were included. They show a growing use of system dynamics and agent‐based modeling in the past decade. They most often examined mechanisms and interventions in the areas of social network‐based influences on obesity, physiology and disease state mechanics, and the role of food and physical activity environments. Usefulness for identifying common drivers of the global syndemic was mixed; most models represented Western settings and focused on obesity determinants close to the person (eg, social circles, school settings, and neighborhood environments), with a relative paucity in models at mesolevel and macrolevel and in developing country contexts.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

A systematic review of system dynamics and agent‐based obesity models: Evaluating obesity as part of the global syndemic

et al. 2019

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“…Zarghami, Fotookian, Safari, and Aslanzadeh () proposed a decision support system for Yamchi reservoir operation in the north‐west of Iran. They studied future streamflows in response to changes in temperature and precipitation under A2 scenario (HadCM3 downscaled with LARS‐WG model) and under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 (statistical downscaling model SDSM).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Operation of two major reservoirs of Iran under IPCC scenarios during the XXI century

Akbari‐Alashti

Soncini

Dinpashoh

et al. 2018

Hydrological Processes

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We assess the effects of prospective climate change until 2100 on water management of two major reservoirs of Iran, namely, Dez (3.34 × 109 m3) and Alavian (6 × 107 m3). We tune the Poly‐Hydro model suited for simulation of hydrological cycle in high altitude snow‐fed catchments. We assess optimal operation rules (ORs) for the reservoirs using three algorithms under dynamic and static operation and linear and non‐linear decision rules during control run (1990–2010 for Dez and 2000–2010 for Alavian). We use projected climate scenarios (plus statistical downscaling) from three general circulation models, EC‐Earth, CCSM4, and ECHAM6, and three emission scenarios, or representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, for a grand total of nine scenarios, to mimic evolution of the hydrological cycle under future climate until 2100. We subsequently test the ORs under the future hydrological scenarios (at half century and end of century) and the need for reoptimization. Poly‐Hydro model when benchmarked against historical data well mimics the hydrological budget of both catchments, including the main processes of evapotranspiration and streamflows. Teaching–learning‐based optimization delivers the best performance in both reservoirs according to objective scores and is used for future operation. Our projections in Dez catchment depict decreased precipitation along the XXI century, with −1% on average (of the nine scenarios) at half century and −6% at the end of century, with changes in streamflows on average −7% yearly and −13% yearly, respectively. In Alavian, precipitation would decrease by −10% on average at half century and −13% at the end of century, with streamflows −14% yearly and −18% yearly, respectively. Under the projected future hydrology, reservoirs' operation would provide lower performance (i.e., larger lack of water) than now, especially for Alavian dam. Our results provide evidence of potentially decreasing water availability and less effective water management in water stressed areas like Northern Iran here during this century.

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“…The results of their research showed that using the system dynamics approach, it is easy to see the effect of applying different scenarios and management policies on the allocation of water resources and based on which decisions were made. Zarghami et al (2016) used a system dynamics approach to develop a decision-making system for the operation of Yamchi Dam in Ardebil province, Iran under the influence of climate change. They concluded that this method could be used in cases where the development of a policy or decision was made in a critical situation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating the Effect of Managing Scenarios of Flow Reduction and Increasing Irrigation Water Demand on Water Resources Allocation Using System Dynamics (Case Study: Zonouz Dam, Iran)

Sattari

Mirabbasi

Dolati

et al. 2020

Tekirdağ Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi

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Meeting the healthy nutrition needs of the increasing population in the arid and semi-arid climates of the different regions of the world such as Iran has become very important for the agriculture ministry and water resources managers. In this study, the system dynamics approach was used in the Vensim software environment to allocate the water of the Zonouz dam reservoir for irrigation purposes in the northwest of Iran. For this purpose, the existing surface water resources in the basin and the amounts of agricultural water and environmental water demands were determined and a water allocation plan was developed. In the first stage of the study, it was found that if the existing water resources and demands will not change, the amount of water stored in the reservoir will provide approximately 91% of irrigation water demands and approximately 99% of environmental water needs. The model created in the study was found to be sensitive to reservoir inputs and irrigation water demands. Within the scope of this study, the impact of two different scenarios that may occur as a result of climate change and irrigation management in the operation of the reservoir was evaluated. The decrease in the amount of water entering the reservoir in the first scenario and the increase in irrigation water needs in the second scenario are assumed within the next 10 years. According to the simulation results of the first scenario, irrigation water demands will not be met sufficiently with the decrease in the amount of water to be stored in the reservoir due to the decrease in the amount of water entering the reservoir in the next 10 years. According to the results of the second scenario, in the next 10 years due to possible climate change or if the cultivated area increases due to some new agricultural policies; The amount of water stored in the reservoir will not meet the irrigation demands and there will be water shortage in the system. In this case, it is necessary to make changes in irrigation water management and use new irrigation systems to save water. Based on the findings of the study, it has been observed that the impact of all types of irrigation water policies can be successfully evaluated within the scope of the system dynamics approach.

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Reservoir operation using system dynamics under climate change impacts: a case study of Yamchi reservoir, Iran

Cited by 12 publications

References 29 publications

A systematic review of system dynamics and agent‐based obesity models: Evaluating obesity as part of the global syndemic

A systematic review of system dynamics and agent‐based obesity models: Evaluating obesity as part of the global syndemic

Operation of two major reservoirs of Iran under IPCC scenarios during the XXI century

Investigating the Effect of Managing Scenarios of Flow Reduction and Increasing Irrigation Water Demand on Water Resources Allocation Using System Dynamics (Case Study: Zonouz Dam, Iran)

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