Resilience Dynamic Assessment Based on Precursor Events: Application to Ship LNG Bunkering Operations

Abstract

The focus of the present paper is the development of a resilience framework suitable to be applied in assessing the safety of ship LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) bunkering process. Ship propulsion considering LNG as a possible fuel (with dual fuel marine engines installed on board) has favored important discussions about the LNG supply chain and delivery on board to the ship power plant. Within this context, a resilience methodological approach is outlined, including a case study application, to demonstrate its actual effectiveness. With specific reference to the operative steps for LNG bunkering operations in the maritime field, a dynamic model based on Bayesian inference and MCMC simulations can be built, involving the probability of operational perturbations, together with their updates based on the hard (failures) and soft (process variables deviations) evidence emerging during LNG bunkering operations. The approach developed in this work, based on advanced Markov Models and variational fitting algorithms, has proven to be a useful and flexible tool to study, analyze and verify how much the perturbations of systems and subsystems can be absorbed without leading to failure.

Methodology for Resilience Assessment of Oil Pipeline Network System Exposed to Earthquake

“…Resilience assessment of CINs can help decision-makers improve safety strategies and reduce resources required for post-disaster recovery [29,30]. However, research on OPNS resilience is rarely reported [31,32].…”

Human Error Probability Assessment for LNG Bunkering Based on Fuzzy Bayesian Network-CREAM Model

“…Some research studies have been conducted regarding the risks of LNG bunkering. These have mainly focused on the following three aspects: (1) safety zone evaluation [10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22], (2) risk assessment methodology and practice [23][24][25][26][27], and (3) emergency evacuation assessment [27,28]. Even though these studies have improved our understanding of LNG bunkering safety, none has quantified human errors in LNG bunkering.…”

“…(2) risk assessment methodology and practice [23][24][25][26][27], and (3) emergency evacuation assessment [27,28]. Even though these studies have improved our understanding of LNG bunkering safety, none has quantified human errors in LNG bunkering.…”