Resource allocation strategies for insecticide-treated bed nets to achieve malaria eradication

Abstract

Background: Large reductions in the global malaria burden have been achieved in the last decades, but plateauing funding poses a challenge for progressing towards the ultimate goal of malaria eradication. We aimed to determine the optimal strategy to allocate global resources to achieve this goal.Methods: Using previously published mathematical models ofPlasmodium falciparumandPlasmodium vivaxtransmission incorporating insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) as an illustrative intervention, we sought to identify the global funding allocation that maximized impact under defined objectives and across a range of global funding budgets.Results: We found that the optimal strategy for case reduction closely mirrored an allocation framework that prioritizes funding for high-transmission settings, resulting in total case reductions of 76% (optimal strategy) and 66% (prioritizing high-transmission settings) at intermediate budget levels. Allocation strategies that had the greatest impact on case reductions were associated with lesser near-term impacts on the global population at risk, highlighting a trade-off between reducing burden and “shrinking the map” through a focus on near-elimination settings. The optimal funding distribution prioritized high ITN coverage in high-transmission settings endemic forP. falciparumonly, while maintaining lower levels in low-transmission settings. However, at high budgets, 62% of funding was targeted to low-transmission settings co-endemic forP. falciparumandP. vivax.Conclusions: These results support current global strategies to prioritize funding to high-burdenP. falciparum-endemic settings in sub-Saharan Africa to minimize clinical malaria burden and progress towards elimination but highlight competing goals of reducing the global population at risk and addressing the burden ofP. vivax.