Resource asynchrony and landscape homogenization as drivers of virulence evolution

Abstract

In the last years, the emergence of zoonotic diseases and the frequency of disease outbreaks have increased substantially, fuelled by habitat encroachment and asynchrony of biological cycles due to global change. The virulence of these diseases is a key aspect for their success. In order to understand the complex processes of pathogen virulence evolution in the global change context, we adapted an established individual‐based model of host-pathogen dynamics. Our model simulates a population of social hosts affected by an evolving pathogen in a dynamic landscape. Pathogen virulence evolution is explored by the inclusion of multiple strains in the model that differ in their transmission capability and lethality. Simultaneously, the host’s resource landscape is subjected to spatial and temporal dynamics, emulating effects of global change. We found an increase in pathogenic virulence and a shift in strain dominance with increasing landscape homogenisation. Our model further shows a trend to lower virulence pathogens being dominant in fragmented landscapes, although pulses of highly virulent strains are expected under resource asynchrony. While all landscape scenarios favour coexistence of low and high virulent strains, when host density increases, the high virulence strains capitalize on the high possibility for transmission and are likely to become dominant.