Rethinking adaptation for a 4 ^° C world

Abstract

With weakening prospects of prompt mitigation, it is increasingly likely that the world will experience 4 • C and more of global warming. In such a world, adaptation decisions that have long lead times or that have implications playing out over many decades become more uncertain and complex. Adapting to global warming of 4 • C cannot be seen as a mere extrapolation of adaptation to 2 • C; it will be a more substantial, continuous and transformative process. However, a variety of psychological, social and institutional barriers to adaptation are exacerbated by uncertainty and long timeframes, with the danger of immobilizing decision-makers. In this paper, we show how complexity and uncertainty can be reduced by a systematic approach to categorizing the interactions between decision lifetime, the type of uncertainty in the relevant drivers of change and the nature of adaptation response options. We synthesize a number of issues previously raised in the literature to link the categories of interactions to a variety of risk-management strategies and tactics. Such application could help to break down some barriers to adaptation and both simplify and better target adaptation decision-making.The approach needs to be tested and adopted rapidly.

From barriers to limits to climate change adaptation: path dependency and the speed of change

“…This means that defining successful adaptation is more about the sustainability of processes and the principles of fairness and equity than it is about measuring outcomes at any given point in time (Stafford-Smith et al 2011, Hurlimann et al 2014). Successful adaptation is therefore a matter of "socially and environmentally sustainable development pathways, including both social justice and environmental integrity" (Eriksen et al 2011:8).…”

“…Under even modest rates of global warming, adaptation may not avoid harm to social and ecological systems (Adger et al 2009a, Meinshausen et al 2009, Stafford-Smith et al 2011. Much depends on the severity of the climatic perturbation and the sensitivity and resilience of the systems at risk (Dow et al 2013a).…”

“…Subsequent research justified a chapter titled "Adaptation Opportunities, Constraints, and Limits" in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report . Understanding where, when, and how barriers and limits to adaptation arise has become an important frontier in climate change research (Adger et al 2009a, 2009b, Stafford-Smith et al 2011, Dow et al 2013a, Islam et al 2014, Palutikof et al 2014a. Two recent reviews argue that advances in knowledge require comparative studies that seek to identify the underlying drivers of the barriers and limits to adaptation (Biesbroek at al.…”

To what extent are land resource managers preparing for high-end climate change in Scotland?

“…Good risk management involves preparing for the worst, but hoping for the best. The reality of the worst is that the world is currently headed for an average increase in temperature of 4°C and beyond (Gasser et al 2015;Stafford Smith et al 2011). The current high-end trajectory would lead to severe climate change impacts, as reported for sea-level rise (Golledge et al 2015), flood risk (Alfieri et al 2015) and water scarcity (Schewe et al 2014) among others.…”

Perceptions of climate trends among Mexican maize farmers

“…Adger et al 2009;Pelling 2010;Smith et al 2011). In most of these studies, adaptation has been defined as discrete policy or technology options to instigate effective responses to perceived threats.…”