Retrospective Voting in Presidential Primaries

Abstract

<jats:p>The research question of this study was whether voters who participated in presidential primaries cast retrospective votes. This problem was studied with data from CBS News/New York Times exit polls for three 1976 Republican primaries and for ten 1980 Democratic primaries. The analysis suggested that ballots cast in the presidential primaries of the party-in-power were primarily retrospective votes. Statistical controls were introduced for candidate image, ideology, issues, electability, party identification, and socioeconomic status. These controls did not alter the basic finding of retrospective voting.</jats:p>

The Intraparty Gender Gap: Differences between Male and Female Voters in the 1980–2000 Presidential Primaries

“…Similar intraparty ideological gender gaps occur among caucus participants and delegates to the presidential nomination conventions (McMullen and Norrander 2000;Rapoport, Stone, and Abramowitz 1990). If primary voters are retrospective voters (Monardi 1994;Wattier 1990), women's more pessimistic view of the economy might lead them to be less supportive of incumbents (Chaney, Alvarez, and Nagler 1998) even during the nomination stage. Among voters in the 1992 Republican primaries, women were more pessimistic than men about the economy in 45% of the states while men were more pessimistic than women in 9%.…”

“…Table 1 illustrates that a gender difference on ideology is quite prevalent in the Republican primary electorate. If primary voters are retrospective voters (Monardi 1994;Wattier 1990), women's more pessimistic view of the economy might lead them to be less supportive of incumbents (Chaney, Alvarez, and Nagler 1998) even during the nomination stage. Men outnumber women among the conservative voters in three-quarters of the primaries, while women outnumber men among moderate voters in two-thirds of the Republican primaries.…”

Primary Voters as Retrospective Voters

“…Studying retrospective voting in primary elections is most appropriate when an incumbent is one of the candidates in his or her party's primary. Wattier (1990) does fmd some evidence of retrospective voting in the 1976 Republican and 1980 Democratic primaries. However, such a test must also consider some of the attributes of primary elections that are distinct from general elections.…”