Revisiting the Transit Timing Variations in the TrES-3 and Qatar-1 Systems with TESS Data

Mannaday, Vineet Kumar; Thakur, Parijat; Southworth, J.; Jiang, Ing-Guey; Sahu, D. K.; Mancini, L.; Vaňko, M.; Kundra, E.; Gajdoš, Pavol; A-thano, Napaporn; Sariya, Devesh P.; Yeh, Li-Chin; Griv, Evgeny; Mkrtichian, D. E.; Shlyapnikov, A. A.

doi:10.3847/1538-3881/ac91c2

Cited by 8 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 92 publications

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“…Of these, two have previous claimed detections. (1) A possible decreasing period for TrES-3 b has been noted at similar marginal levels by other works (Hagey et al 2022;Mannaday et al 2022). Given that TrES-3 b is a long-studied planet around a bright star with particularly deep transits, hundreds of diverse light curves have been recorded by amateurs and professionals alike (with over 600 light curves listed in the ETD alone), making the chance of there being undetected mistakes in the literature high.…”

Section: Kepler-1658 B: Existing Data Have Promising δBicmentioning

confidence: 52%

Doomed Worlds. I. No New Evidence for Orbital Decay in a Long-term Survey of 43 Ultrahot Jupiters

Adams,

Jackson,

Sickafoose

et al. 2024

Planet. Sci. J.

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Ultrahot Jupiters (UHJs) are likely doomed by tidal forces to undergo orbital decay and eventual disruption by their stars, but the timescale over which this process unfolds is unknown. We present results from a long-term project to monitor UHJ transits. We recovered WASP-12 b’s orbital decay rate of P ̇ = − 29.8 ± 1.6 ms yr−1, in agreement with prior work. Five other systems initially had promising nonlinear transit ephemerides. However, a closer examination of two—WASP-19 b and CoRoT-2 b, both with prior tentative detections—revealed several independent errors with the literature timing data; after correction, neither planet shows signs of orbital decay. Meanwhile, a potential decreasing period for TrES-1 b, P ̇ = − 16 ± 5 ms yr−1, corresponds to a tidal quality factor Q ⋆ ′ = 160 and likely does not result from orbital decay if driven by dissipation within the host star. Nominal period increases in two systems, WASP-121 b and WASP-46 b, rest on a small handful of points. Only 1/43 planets (WASP-12 b) in our sample is experiencing detectable orbital decay. For nearly half (20/42), we can rule out P ̇ as high as observed for WASP-12 b. Thus, while many UHJs could still be experiencing rapid decay that we cannot yet detect, a sizable subpopulation of UHJs are decaying at least an order of magnitude more slowly than WASP-12 b. Our reanalysis of Kepler-1658 b with no new data finds that it remains a promising orbital decay candidate. Finally, we recommend that the scientific community take steps to avoid spurious detections through better management of the multi-decade-spanning data sets needed to search for and study planetary orbital decay.

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Section: Kepler-1658 B: Existing Data Have Promising δBicmentioning

confidence: 52%

Doomed Worlds. I. No New Evidence for Orbital Decay in a Long-term Survey of 43 Ultrahot Jupiters

Adams,

Jackson,

Sickafoose

et al. 2024

Planet. Sci. J.

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“…By Equation (16), we expect systems with such small 〈τ〉 to have T shift  10 s after T dur = 10 yr. Thus, the transit timing shifts of some of these systems, many of which are part of existing transit timing measurement campaigns (e.g., Patra et al 2020;Ivshina & Winn 2022;Maciejewski et al 2022;Mannaday et al 2022;Rosário et al 2022;Harre et al 2023), may soon be detectable.…”

Section: Systems Likely To Be Undergoing Rapid Orbital Decaymentioning

confidence: 99%

Orbital Decay of Hot Jupiters due to Weakly Nonlinear Tidal Dissipation

Weinberg,

Davachi,

Essick

et al. 2023

ApJ

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We study tidal dissipation in hot Jupiter host stars due to the nonlinear damping of tidally driven g-modes, extending the calculations of Essick & Weinberg to a wide variety of stellar host types. This process causes the planet’s orbit to decay and has potentially important consequences for the evolution and fate of hot Jupiters. Previous studies either only accounted for linear dissipation processes or assumed that the resonantly excited primary mode becomes strongly nonlinear and breaks as it approaches the stellar center. However, the great majority of hot Jupiter systems are in the weakly nonlinear regime in which the primary mode does not break but instead excites a sea of secondary modes via three-mode interactions. We simulate these nonlinear interactions and calculate the net mode dissipation for stars that range in mass from 0.5M ⊙ ≤ M ⋆ ≤ 2.0M ⊙ and in age from the early main sequence to the subgiant phase. We find that the nonlinearly excited secondary modes can enhance the tidal dissipation by orders of magnitude compared to linear dissipation processes. For the stars with M ⋆ ≲ 1.0M ⊙ of nearly any age, we find that the orbital decay time is ≲100 Myr for orbital periods P orb ≲ 1 day. For M ⋆ ≳ 1.2M ⊙, the orbital decay time only becomes short on the subgiant branch, where it can be ≲10 Myr for P orb ≲ 2 days and result in significant transit time shifts. We discuss these results in the context of known hot Jupiter systems and examine the prospects for detecting their orbital decay with transit timing measurements.

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“…However, the resulting ephemeris was too recent to have been included in our data, so we do not consider it here. A similar case is TrES-3 b; we did not use more recent observations (e.g., Mannaday et al 2022) that would likely update its timing uncertainty and increase t wait . Determining whether individual systems require follow-up or just updated ephemerides is left for future work.…”

Section: Fitting a Linear Curve To A Linear Ephemerismentioning

confidence: 99%

Metrics for Optimizing Searches for Tidally Decaying Exoplanets

Jackson,

Adams,

Morgenthaler

2023

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Tidal interactions between short-period exoplanets and their host stars drive orbital decay and have likely led to engulfment of planets by their stars. Precise transit timing surveys, with baselines now spanning decades for some planets, are directly detecting orbital decay for a handful of planets, with corroboration for planetary engulfment coming from independent lines of evidence. More than that, recent observations have perhaps even caught the moment of engulfment for one unfortunate planet. These portentous signs bolster prospects for ongoing surveys, but optimizing such a survey requires considering the astrophysical parameters that give rise to robust timing constraints and large tidal decay rates, as well as how best to schedule observations conducted over many years. The large number of possible targets means it is not feasible to continually observe all planets that might exhibit detectable tidal decay. In this study, we explore astrophysical and observational properties for a short-period exoplanet system that can maximize the likelihood for observing tidally driven transit timing variations. We consider several fiducial observational strategies and real exoplanet systems reported to exhibit decay. We show that moderately frequent (a few transits per year) observations may suffice to detect tidal decay within just a few years. Tidally driven timing variations take time to grow to detectable levels, so we estimate how long that growth takes as a function of timing uncertainties and tidal decay rate and provide thresholds for deciding that tidal decay has been detected.

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Revisiting the Transit Timing Variations in the TrES-3 and Qatar-1 Systems with TESS Data

Cited by 8 publications

References 92 publications

Doomed Worlds. I. No New Evidence for Orbital Decay in a Long-term Survey of 43 Ultrahot Jupiters

Doomed Worlds. I. No New Evidence for Orbital Decay in a Long-term Survey of 43 Ultrahot Jupiters

Orbital Decay of Hot Jupiters due to Weakly Nonlinear Tidal Dissipation

Metrics for Optimizing Searches for Tidally Decaying Exoplanets

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