Ripple effect in the supply chain: an analysis and recent literature

Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Re

2020

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1,652

1,348

Epidemic outbreaks are a special case of supply chain (SC) risks which is distinctively characterized by a long-term disruption existence, disruption propagations (i.e., the ripple effect), and high uncertainty. We present the results of a simulation study that opens some new research tensions on the impact of COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) on the global SCs. First, we articulate the specific features that frame epidemic outbreaks as a unique type of SC disruption risks. Second, we demonstrate how simulation-based methodology can be used to examine and predict the impacts of epidemic outbreaks on the SC performance using the example of coronavirus COVID-19 and anyLogistix simulation and optimization software. We offer an analysis for observing and predicting both short-term and long-term impacts of epidemic outbreaks on the SCs along with managerial insights. A set of sensitivity experiments for different scenarios allows illustrating the model's behavior and its value for decision-makers. The major observation from the simulation experiments is that the timing of the closing and opening of the facilities at different echelons might become a major factor that determines the epidemic outbreak impact on the SC performance rather than an upstream disruption duration or the speed of epidemic propagation. Other important factors are lead-time, speed of epidemic propagation, and the upstream and downstream disruption durations in the SC. The outcomes of this research can be used by decisionmakers to predict the operative and long-term impacts of epidemic outbreaks on the SCs and develop pandemic SC plans. Our approach can also help to identify the successful and wrong elements of risk mitigation/preparedness and recovery policies in case of epidemic outbreaks. The paper is concluded by summarizing the most important insights and outlining future research agenda.

Section: Research Methodsologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the impacts of epidemic outbreaks on global supply chains: A simulation-based analysis on the coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) case

Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Re

2020

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1,652

1,348

“…Research in SC reaction to disturbances is related to the semantic network analysis level with a focus on structural properties, complexity roles, and node/arc criticality . The studies (Basole and Bellamy 2014;Dolgui 2014a, 2014b;Kim, Chen, and Linderman 2015;Brintrup, Wang, and Tiwari 2015;Sawik 2017;Macdonald et al 2018;Yoon et al 2018;Scheibe and Blackhurst 2018;Pavlov et al 2018;Ojha et al 2018;Giannoccaro, Nair, and Choi 2017;Ivanov 2018Ivanov , 2019Dolgui, Ivanov, and Sokolov 2018;Li et al 2019;Pavlov et al 2019b) recognised the structural SC properties as crucial determinant to maintain stability and robustness and to achieve resilience. Another important observation in literature is a linkage of SC complexity and resilience (Blackhurst et al 2005;Nair and Vidal 2011;Bode and Wagner 2015;Dubey et al 2019a;Tan, Cai, and Zhang 2020).…”

Section: Viability Vs Stability Robustness and Resilience Of Scsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Viability of intertwined supply networks: extending the supply chain resilience angles towards survivability. A position paper motivated by COVID-19 outbreak

International Journal of Production Research

Dolgui

2020

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1,229

919

An intertwined supply network (ISN) is an entirety of interconnected supply chains (SC) which, in their integrity secure the provision of society and markets with goods and services. The ISNs are open systems with structural dynamics since the firms may exhibit multiple behaviours by changing the buyer-supplier roles in interconnected or even competing SCs. From the positions of resilience, the ISNs as a whole provide services to society (e.g. food service, mobility service or communication service) which are required to ensure a long-term survival. The analysis of survivability at the level of ISN requires a consideration at a large scale as resilience of individual SCs. The recent example of coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak clearly shows the necessity of this new perspective. Our study introduces a new angle in SC resilience research when a resistance to extraordinary disruptions needs to be considered at the scale of viability. We elaborate on the integrity of the ISN and viability. The contribution of our position study lies in a conceptualisation of a novel decision-making environment of ISN viability. We illustrate the viability formation through a dynamic game-theoretic modelling of a biological system that resembles the ISN. We discuss some future research areas.

“…Supply chain flexibility and resilience are interrelated. Ivanov, Sokolov, and Dolgui (2014) and Dolgui, Ivanov, and Sokolov (2018) developed a ripple effect control framework that provides evidence on the role of flexibility in supply chain disruption management.…”

Section: Flexibility In Manufacturing Service and Supply Chain Systemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Zhang, Vonderembse, and Lim (2003) analyse manufacturing flexibility through defining and analysing relationships among competence, capability and customer satisfaction. Related works can also be found in assembly line balancing (Battaïa and Dolgui 2013;Borisovsky, Delorme, and Dolgui 2014) and the supply chain flexibility literature (see further in this article).Supply chain flexibility includes system, process and product flexibility (Tang and Tomlin 2008; Wei 2012, 2015;Dolgui, Ivanov, and Sokolov 2018;Ivanov 2018). System flexibility is composed of strategy and structural components.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Kauder and Meyr (2009) provided a mathematical optimisation framework for a mutual analysis of flexibility and efficiency of supply chain design for an automotive manufacturer. Tanrisever, Morrice, and Morton (2012) proposed a stochastic programming model for a multi-stage supply chain regarding capacity flexibility in made-to-order production environments.Supply chain flexibility links to other flexibility dimensions including production, capacity, volume and logistics flexibility (Beamon 1999; Shepherd and Günter 2006), as well as quantity, supply, product, transport and innovation flexibility (Beamon 1999;Naim et al 2006;Shepherd and Günter 2006).One of the major new research initiatives in supply chain flexibility is the study of its role in disruption risk management frameworks (Dolgui, Ivanov, and Sokolov 2018;Ivanov 2018). In this setting, flexibility engages indirect usage of redundancies in terms of changing the system behaviour by re-allocating inventories, capacities and sourcing facilities in the supply chains.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

New flexibility drivers for manufacturing, supply chain and service operations

International Journal of Production Research

Das

Choi

2018

Self Cite

114

Increasing product proliferation, customisation, competition and customer expectations, as well as supply side disruptions, pose significant challenges to firm operations. Such challenges require improved efficiency and resilience in manufacturing, service and supply chain systems. New and innovative flexibility concepts and models offer a prospective route to such operational improvements. Several emerging issues in flexibility, such as risk and uncertainty management, environmental sustainability, optimal strategies under competition, optimal operations with strategic consumer behaviours are being examined in this regard. This overview provides a concise review of these critical research issues, and discusses related papers featured in this special issue. Four major flexibility drivers are classified: disruption risks, resilience and the ripple effect in the supply chain; digitalisation, smart operations and e-supply chains; sustainability and closedloop supply chains; and supplier integration and behavioural flexibility.Keywords: flexibility; flexible manufacturing; supply chain management; supply chain risk management; supply chain coordination; Industry 4.0; manufacturing systems; service supply chain; ripple effect Flexibility in manufacturing, service and supply chain systemsWith increasing product proliferation, reduced unit demand volumes and next-day delivery expectations, flexibility in operations, service and supply chains has become an important focal area for research and industry. This special issue of IJPR aims to present state-of-the-art research in the field of flexibility in manufacturing, supply chain and service operations.A brief background on flexibility is provided in this section. Flexibility refers to the ability of a system to change (adapt) in dynamic environments. Operational system flexibility has been studied extensively in the manufacturing, service and supply chain literature from various strategic, tactical and operative perspectives (Slack 1987;Bordoloi, Cooper, and Matsuo 1999;Koste and Malhotra 1999;D'Souza and Williams 2000;Das 2001;Van Mieghem 2003;Zhang, Vonderembse, and Lim 2003;Wu, Erkoc, and Karabuk 2005;Alp and Tan 2008;Chang 2012;Jain et al. 2013;Choi, Cheng, and Zhao 2016;Cobb 2016;Ivanov, Tsipoulanidis and Schönberger 2017).A substantive part of this research studies capacity flexibility, classifying investigations into two main areas, i.e. decisions on investment in dedicated versus flexible capacity (Li and Tirupati 1994;Bish, Muriel, and Biller 2005), and process flexibility (or capacity adaptability). Process flexibility (Jordan and Graves 1995;Chou et al. 2010) analyses the ability of a company to change manufacturing setups at flexible lines according to demand or supply changes. It relies, in part on the capability to produce multiple products on multiple production facilities or lines (Jordan and Graves 1995;Simchi-Levi and Wei 2015). In particular, the design of a flexible production network under stochastic demand has been studied by Jordan and Graves (199...