Rising sea level and long term sustainability of near-shore islands of the United Arab Emirates: an approach to establishing setback lines for Abu Dhabi

Abstract

In recent years an important infrastructural and human development focus for the United Arab Emirates has been along the shoreline of its northern coast fronting the Arabian Gulf. The Gulf itself is a large, warm, shallow semi-enclosed body of water with complex oceanography and geomorphological history. Its southern shores, including that of the northern UAE, are predominantly sandy. The value of present infrastructure, especially in the capital city Abu Dhabi, constructed on a number of natural and man-made islands, is enormous, but is already dwarfed by future plans for the next twenty years. It is obvious that for the plans to be both implementable and sustainable, the impacts of future sea level changes must be taken into account.Restricting sea level impact analysis to plotting the slow creep of steadily rising sea level up the shore over several decades is naive and ignores other significant changes in flood risks that accompany rising sea level. These include enhanced coastal erosion, higher extreme tides and waves, elevated low pressure surges and greater wave runup, all of which increase the likelihood of flood occurrence and the degree and intensity of damage. This paper reviews past and future sea level changes in the Arabian Gulf, and demonstrates that, notwithstanding its separation from world oceans, the Gulf sea level tends to respond to global forcing in the same way and within approximately the same time frames as the global oceanic system. The study concludes that from present evidence, the most likely sea level rise scenarios for the Gulf by 2099 lie between 0.21 and 2m. Then, after review of many of the relevant variables, it proposes an 8-step procedure for developing safe development setback lines for the islands and shoreline of Abu Dhabi city. The approach should be applicable for the islands and shorelines anywhere in the southern Gulf.

Predicting the Extent of Inundation due to Sea-Level Rise: Al Hamra Development, Ras Al Khaimah, UAE. A Pilot Project

“…An extensive review of all the information pertaining to changing sea level in the Abu Dhabi region; including possible storm and tide surges, and probable highest significant waves; was completed by Garland (2010). In the review, he included global information from Pfeffer et al (2008), IPCC (2007) Garland's analysis confirmed that sea level change in the Arabian Gulf mirrors global eustatic change.…”

“…The difference between exposed sites and sheltered sites vary significantly. The expert sea level rise estimations are shown in Table 1, with the final expected flooding levels; including sporadic effects of storm and tide surges and highest significant waves; are detailed in Table 2 as per Garland's (2010) analysis.…”

“…Given the lowest possible extreme event as per table 2, the entire development would be flooded, with water surpassing the mall and entirely flooding the highway. The lower level scenarios for (Sultan et al, 1995) Medium scenario (IPCC, 2013) High secenario ( Rhamsdorf et al, 2007) Extreme scenario (Pfeffer et al 2008 Source: Garland, 2010 sea level rise did not show any appreciable flooding; however, as the extreme event predictions begin at just over four meters, there is no need to model each of the eight possible scenarios: even with the most conservative estimate, the Al Hamra development would experience near total flooding. Given this worrying state of affairs, it would seem prudent for Ras Al Khaimah's government to explore remedial action.…”

“…The southern Arabian Gulf, the subject area of this paper, with its recent development stands to be greatly affected by inundation (Garland 2010). Given the already high and probably continuing investment in infrastructure, as well as the growing coastal population of the UAE Gulf coast, it is prudent to consider the development of policies and tools to ensure that future coastal developments are undertaken to alleviate risk to investors, inhabitants and sensitive environmental areas.…”

Predicting Sea-Level Rise in Al Hamra Development, Ras Al Khaimah, UAE

“…The United Arab Emirates, located at the South-Eastern end of the Arabian Gulf, has invested greatly in development along its coastline. Many of these developments will be at risk from future sea level rise (Garland 2010). Going through a phase of rapid economic growth, the UAE is experiencing urban growth at an unprecedented pace.…”