Risk analysis in ultra deep scientific drilling project — A fuzzy synthetic evaluation approach

Liu, Jialin; Li, Quanxi; Wang, Yuhan

doi:10.1016/j.ijproman.2012.09.015

Cited by 71 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…They highlighted higher cost and its rapid growth in drilling activity, especially for renting and drilling services, as well as the need to carefully examine effective criteria in drilling projects [62]. Liu et al (2013) considered risks in drilling projects [63]. They identified a set of 25 risk factors in six categories of natural risks, R & D risks, management risks, drilling risks, equipment risks and security risk and environmental factors.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover, the quality and variety of materials and goods used in a project [73,74], number of active labor force and salaries [75][76][77] and experience and scientific levels of employees in the project [78,79] are amongst other effective measures of project performance. Risks and operational risks, in particular, are also important indicators that many researchers have taken into account [23,63,80]. In addition, research and development (R & D) and related costs are identified as influential parameters in improving project performance [81,82].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Novel Approach for Evaluation of Projects Using an Interval–Valued Fuzzy Additive Ratio Assessment (ARAS) Method: A Case Study of Oil and Gas Well Drilling Projects

et al. 2018

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Abstract:The beginning of the 21st-century resulted in a more developed multi-attribute decisionmaking (MADM) tool and inspired new application areas that have resulted in discoveries in sustainable construction and building life cycle analysis. Construction and civil engineering stand for the central axis of a body consisting of a multidisciplinary (multi-dimensional) world with ties to disciplines constituting the surface, and with the disciplines, as a consequence, tied to each other. When dealing with multi-attribute decision-making problems generally multiple solutions exist, especially when there is a large number of attributes, and the concept of Pareto-optimality is inefficient. The symmetry and structural regularity are essential concepts in many natural and man-made objects and play a crucial role in the design, engineering, and development of the world. The complexity and risks inherent in projects along with different effective indicators for success and failure may contribute to the difficulties in performance evaluation. In such situations, increasing the importance of uncertainty is observed. This paper proposes a novel integrated tool to find a balance between sustainable development, environmental impact and human well-being, i.e., to find symmetry axe with respect to goals, risks, and constraints (attributes) to cope with the complicated problems. The concept of "optimal solution" as the maximum degree of implemented goals (attributes) is very important. The model is built using the most relevant variables cited in the reviewed project literature and integrates two methods: the Step-Wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA) method and a novel interval-valued fuzzy extension of the Additive Ratio Assessment (ARAS) method. This model was used to solve real case study of oil and gas well drilling projects evaluation. Despite the importance of oil and gas well drilling projects, there is lack of literature that describes and evaluates performance in this field projects. On the other hand, no structured assessment methodology has been presented for these types of projects. Given the limited research on performance evaluation in oil & gas well-drilling projects, the research identifies a set of performance criteria and proposes an evaluation model using fuzzy Delphi method. An illustrative example shows that the proposed method is a useful and alternative decision-making method.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Novel Approach for Evaluation of Projects Using an Interval–Valued Fuzzy Additive Ratio Assessment (ARAS) Method: A Case Study of Oil and Gas Well Drilling Projects

et al. 2018

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“…Xu et al (2010a) applied fuzzy synthetic evaluation to develop a fuzzy risk allocation model for public-private partnership (PPP) projects in Mainland China. In addition, a more recent study by Liu et al (2013) proposed a risk assessment method based on fuzzy synthetic evaluation for ultra deep drilling works projects. As subjective judgments of evaluators are always involved in the risk assessment of TCC/GMP projects which are often multi-layered and fuzzy in nature, fuzzy synthetic evaluation is considered to be a suitable tool to generate a risk assessment model for TCC/GMP projects in this study.…”

Section: The Risk Assessment Of Tcc/gmp Construction Projects Involvementioning

confidence: 99%

Developing a fuzzy risk assessment model for guaranteed maximum price and target cost contracts in South Australia

Chan

2014

Facilities

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Purpose -This paper aims to develop a fuzzy risk assessment model for construction projects procured with target cost contracts and guaranteed maximum price contracts (TCC/GMP) using the fuzzy synthetic evaluation method, based on an empirical questionnaire survey with relevant industrial practitioners in South Australia.Design/methodology/approach -A total of 34 major risk factors inherent with TCC/GMP contracts were identified through an extensive literature review and a series of structured interviews. A questionnaire survey was then launched to solicit the opinions of industrial practitioners on risk assessment of such risk factors.Findings -The most important 14 key risk factors (KRFs) after the computation of normalised values were selected for undertaking fuzzy evaluation analysis. Five key risk groups (KRGs) were then generated in descending order of importance as: (1) Physical risks; (2) Lack of experience of contracting parties throughout TCC/GMP procurement process; (3) Design risks; (4) Contractual risks; and (5) Delayed payment on contracts. These survey findings also revealed that physical risks may be the major hurdle to the success of TCC/GMP projects in South Australia. This is the Pre-Published Version. Facilities Journal (FJ) (Final Accepted Manuscript), Volume 32, Issue 11/12, August 2014, Pages 624-6462 Practical implications -Although the fuzzy risk assessment model was developed for those new-build construction projects procured by TCC/GMP contracts in this paper, the same research methodology may be applied to other contracts within the wide spectrum of facilities management or building maintenance services under the target cost-based model. Therefore, the contribution from this paper could be extended to the discipline of facilities management as well.Originality/value -An overall risk index (ORI) associated with TCC/GMP construction projects and the risk indices of individual KRGs can be generated from the model for reference. An objective and a holistic assessment can be achieved. The model has provided a solid platform to measure, evaluate and reduce the risk levels of TCC/GMP projects based on objective evidence instead of subjective judgments. The research methodology could be replicated in other countries or regions to produce similar models for international comparisons, and the assessment of risk levels for different types of TCC/GMP projects (including new-build or maintenance) worldwide.

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“…Amiri [16] assessed alternative projects and helped the decision-maker select the best one for the National Iranian Oil Company using AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and fuzzy TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution) techniques. Jialin Liu [17] proposed a fuzzy synthetic evaluation approach for scientific drilling project risk assessment. Shakhsi-Niaei [18] proposed an integrated model that is formulated as linear mixed integer programming for making a group of strategic decisions regarding oil and gas development projects.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated Evaluation Method-Based Technical and Economic Factors for International Oil Exploration Projects

et al. 2016

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Abstract:Optimizing international oil exploration projects is one of the main challenges for oil companies in obtaining investment benefits. This paper establishes an integrated evaluation model to maximize investment benefits within the constraints of technical and economic factors, including geological factors, resource quality, geographic conditions, the investment environment, and oil contracts. The paper also proposes a dynamic calculation method of indicators' weight associated with oil prices. The analysis describes the effects of contract terms and the investment environment on project value and quantifies the contractor income ratio for different types of contracts and the investment environment of the host country. Oil exploration projects in Africa are illustrated as examples in which the evaluation indicator Adjusted Concept Reserves (ACR) is calculated for each project. The results show that remaining recoverable reserves and contract terms exert tremendous influences on ACR, and remaining recoverable reserves is the essential factor. Simultaneously, changes in oil prices lead to various rates of change in the contractor income ratio, which is determined by different fiscal terms. This study is important in helping oil companies optimize international oil projects and design reasonable investment strategies.

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Risk analysis in ultra deep scientific drilling project — A fuzzy synthetic evaluation approach

Cited by 71 publications

References 14 publications

A Novel Approach for Evaluation of Projects Using an Interval–Valued Fuzzy Additive Ratio Assessment (ARAS) Method: A Case Study of Oil and Gas Well Drilling Projects

A Novel Approach for Evaluation of Projects Using an Interval–Valued Fuzzy Additive Ratio Assessment (ARAS) Method: A Case Study of Oil and Gas Well Drilling Projects

Developing a fuzzy risk assessment model for guaranteed maximum price and target cost contracts in South Australia

Integrated Evaluation Method-Based Technical and Economic Factors for International Oil Exploration Projects

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