Risk Assessment of China’s Natural Gas Importation: A Supply Chain Perspective

Abstract

<jats:p> With the rapid growth of China’s energy consumption and the great pressure on reduction of carbon emissions, natural gas is an increasingly valuable energy source for enhancing energy and environmental sustainability. To sustain external natural gas supply, China has constructed a series of gas pipelines and liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals for the increasing gas importation. This article identified five gas corridors of China: Central Asia–China gas pipelines, Myanmar–China gas pipelines, Russia–China gas pipelines, Australia/Southeast Asia–China seaborne LNG shipment, and Middle East/North Africa–China seaborne LNG shipment. It then proposed a group of indicators that may influence the security of China’s external gas shipment from a supply chain perspective, and composed them into a Risk Index for assessing the corridors of China’s natural gas importation using the Fuzzy AHP and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) methods. The results indicate that (a) transport distance, geopolitical risk, and resource risk are the major obstacles for China’s natural gas importation; (b) China’s natural gas importation is experiencing a mid-level risk, and the gas pipelines from Central Asia, Myanmar, and Russia are the most secure gas corridors for China, while LNG shipment from Middle East and North Africa has the greatest risk index. (c) China’s diversification strategy has been successful, but a more balanced strategy is suggested to deal with the high gas dependence on Turkmenistan and Australia, as well as Russia when the cross-border gas pipelines are completed and fully utilized in the near future. </jats:p>

Optimization of the risk-based small-scale LNG supply chain in the Indonesian archipelago

“…The variables used in modeling the LNG supply chain vary widely and include the distance between the receiving terminals [ 9 , 13 , 16 , 18 ], Hub Location [ 13 ], Inventory/storage size [ 13 ], vessel capacity [ 9 , 16 , 18 , 28 , 29 ], generating capacity [ 9 , 18 , 29 ], vessel speed [ 18 , 29 ], transportation costs [ 15 , 18 , 23 , 30 , 31 ], route [ 16 , 28 ], term and length of stay [ 15 ], Capex [ 5 , 15 ], and Opex [ 15 , 23 ]. Meanwhile, the objective function often used is the minimal cost [ 9 , 15 , 18 , 23 , 29 , 32 ], maximum revenue [ 6 , 33 ], and optimal cargo volume [ 16 ].…”

“…However, the LNG supply chain system in Indonesia is not optimal; there are many risks in the LNG supply chain process, including the long distance between the source of LNG supply and the generator, the relatively small demand for LNG in each location with an average of 2.28 BBTUD [ 1 ], and shipping lanes classified as dangerous [ [3] , [4] , [5] ]. Shipping environmental conditions in Indonesia are very risky, with wave heights of 4–5 m [ 6 ].…”

Energy Security and Portfolio Diversification: Conventional and Novel Perspectives

“…Similarly, energy exporters can develop risk assessment toolkits for existing and potential markets or specific buyers that evaluate political and economic risk indices, bilateral trade and payment history, current and potential trade barriers, other protectionist measures, and domestic policies that would impact energy exports. The risk factors for specific energy export routes and modes (e.g., maritime shipments, pipelines, and railways) can also be quantified and combined with consumer risk profiles for a comprehensive energy security analysis of export supply chains (see [46,47] for such approaches from the importers' perspective).…”

Energy Resilience Impact of Supply Chain Network Disruption to Military Microgrids

“…Single node Deliberate attack Insider threat [111] Cyberattack [112] Terrorist attack [113] Logistics delay Inclement weather [114] Transportation accident [115] Port congestion [116] Multi-nodal Natural disaster Hurricane [117] Earthquake [118] Wildfire [119] Material shortage Trade tariffs [120] Shipping route blockage [121] Civil unrest [122] Financial crisis Market volatility [123] Economic recession [124] Global pandemic [125] As such, there has been significant literature regarding the ripple effect and its consequences across various domains [109]. Gholami-Zanjani et al [126] assessed its effect on the food industry as a basis for location-allocation and inventory-replenishment decisions.…”