Risk assessment of obesity‐related noncommunicable diseases through body mass index trajectories in adulthood: NHANES 2007–2018

Abstract

AimTo assess the impact of adult body mass index (BMI) trajectories on the risk of obesity‐related noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) in the U.S. adults after adjustment for sociodemographic and lifestyle factors.MethodsData were extracted from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey conducted from 2007 to 2018, including male and female participants aged 29–59 years. Rao‐Scott adjusted chi‐square was employed to detect associations between categorical variables in descriptive analyses. Cox proportional hazards models estimated hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for NCDs and BMI trajectories, adjusted for sociodemographic and lifestyle factors. Kaplan–Meier curves illustrated the cumulative incidence over time.ResultsAnalyses were carried out on 15 721 participants and revealing significant differences among BMI trajectories in terms of demographic, lifestyle, and health characteristics. The overall prevalence of NCDs was 28.0% (95%CI:26.6–28.9). The cumulative incidence over time was higher in the high increase, moderate increase, and mixed trajectory groups, with a correspondingly higher cumulative risk (p < 0.001). Non‐overweight trajectory was considered reference category in Cox models. The BMI trajectories were independently associated with an increased risk of NCDs, even after adjusting for potential confounders (HR: 1.7; 95%CI: 1.4–1.9 for moderate increase; HR: 3.6; 95%CI: 3.2–4.1 for high increase; and HR: 2.4; 95%CI: 2.1–2.7, for mixed). Furthermore, differences between males and females were also observed.ConclusionThe transition to and persistence of obesity into adulthood increases the risk of NCDs. The implementation of targeted interventions with long‐term monitoring of BMI may be beneficial in the prevention of future obesity‐related NCDs.