Risk evaluation of oil and natural gas pipelines due to natural hazards using fuzzy fault tree analysis

Badida, Pavanaditya; Balasubramaniam, Yakesh; Jayapriya, J.

doi:10.1016/j.jngse.2019.04.010

Cited by 168 publications

(49 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…However, some failure data cannot be obtained using the above methods. Many domestic and foreign scholars have discussed FFTA in detail, and it has been proved to be valid for such uncertain problem [35][36][37][38][39].…”

Section: Risk Assessment Process Of Olblmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Assessment of Oxygen Lance Burning Loss Using Bow-Tie Analysis Based on Fuzzy Theory

Fan

et al. 2020

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

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Oxygen lances (OLs) are important devices used in converter steel making. However, the occurrence of OL burning loss (OLBL) failure may lead to explosion accidents. To better prevent OLBL failure, it is necessary to perform a probabilistic assessment. Bow-tie analysis based on fuzzy theory was proposed to assess OLBL, which represents a hazardous event. In this paper, fuzzy theory based on triangular fuzzy numbers (TFNs) was applied to calculate the failure data. Fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) in combination with the improved similarity aggregation method (ISAM) was employed to reduce the error generated due to the subjective judgement of experts. Furthermore, a comprehensive importance analysis method was developed to rank the importance of basic events (BEs), facilitating the adoption of the corresponding safety decisions. When performing fuzzy event tree analysis (FETA), the occurrence probability of outcome events (OEs) was determined by conducting a layer of protection analysis (LOPA). Finally, safety measures were proposed based on the assessment results to achieve safe production. The results indicated that the use of bow-tie analysis is appropriate to perform qualitative and quantitative assessment. Through bow-tie analysis based on fuzzy theory, the occurrence probability of OLBL was determined to be in the interval (5.34E − 02, 2.69E − 01). By adding independent protective layers (IPLs), the occurrence probability of OEs caused by OLBL can be effectively reduced.

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Section: Risk Assessment Process Of Olblmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Assessment of Oxygen Lance Burning Loss Using Bow-Tie Analysis Based on Fuzzy Theory

Fan

et al. 2020

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

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“…In the quantitative analysis of FAT, the critical importance coefficient is often used. This coefficient refers to the ratio of the relative change rate of the occurrence probability of a basic event to the change rate of the occurrence probability of the top event, also known as the "risk importance factor" [39], [40]. FAT analysis is used to quantitatively analyse the accident of the underground electric locomotive colliding with people, and its probability of a top event of the "AND gate" is as follows:…”

Section: B Demonstration Of the Reliability Of The Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Underground Mine Risk Identification Model and Safety Management Method Based on Explanation Graph-Probabilistic Multi-Plan Analysis (EG-PMPA)

et al. 2020

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“…Refineries and SDs have their sending capacities for each type of transport mode. Constraints (18) and (19) are used to limit the sending volume of refineries, and SDs are in their maximum sending capacity.…”

Section: Capacity Constraintsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Besides, the causes that lead to unreliable situations are different from other supply chains. The production of refineries and the demand for depots are not stable and may cause an imbalance between these objects Also, refineries may suffer from fully or partly disruption, and the transportation process may be fully blocked by natural disasters or other man‐made accidents . The probabilities of these unnormal situations are different from other supply chains, and we cannot migrate the results and data from other supply chains directly.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustainable refined products supply chain: A reliability assessment for demand‐side management in primary distribution processes

Wang

Qiu

Yuan

et al. 2019

Energy Science & Engineering

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The reliable operation of the primary distribution of refined products supply chains is crucial in guaranteeing the demand for retail markets. The uncertainties such as demand, production, and inventory will affect the supply chain operation. However, there lacks literature that studies the reliability of demand‐side management of refined products supply chains. This reliability assessment can help define the weak points and boost the performance of the supply chain. And it can help decision‐makers to improve the satisfaction of retail markets. In this paper, a systematic method for comprehensively assessing the reliability of refined products supply chains is proposed. At first, a mathematical programming model is developed to get the distribution plan of refined products. Then, several scenarios such as increasing demand, decreasing production, refineries disruption, and pipeline interruption relevant to the real situations of refined products supply chains are defined. Besides, indices including satisfaction rate, number of dissatisfied retail markets, refined products shortage, shortage of a single retail market, and average shortage duration are proposed to evaluate the reliability of the demand‐side management in primary distribution processes. At last, the Monte Carlo simulation is adopted for a comprehensive analysis combining all the scenarios. This analysis shows a clear picture of the influence of uncertainties. This method is applied to assess the reliability of demand‐side management of a real refined products supply chain. After analyzing different scenarios, the average probability of dissatisfaction under the reference scenario came as 1.93 × 10−4/day that means one day in around 14.2 years could have refined products shortage. This method can also help decision‐makers to assess other primary distribution of refined products supply chains.

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Risk evaluation of oil and natural gas pipelines due to natural hazards using fuzzy fault tree analysis

Cited by 168 publications

References 54 publications

Risk Assessment of Oxygen Lance Burning Loss Using Bow-Tie Analysis Based on Fuzzy Theory

Risk Assessment of Oxygen Lance Burning Loss Using Bow-Tie Analysis Based on Fuzzy Theory

An Underground Mine Risk Identification Model and Safety Management Method Based on Explanation Graph-Probabilistic Multi-Plan Analysis (EG-PMPA)

Sustainable refined products supply chain: A reliability assessment for demand‐side management in primary distribution processes

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