Risk factors spatial-temporal detection for dengue fever in Guangzhou

Abstract

Dengue fever (DF) has been a growing public-health concern in China since its emergence in Guangdong Province in 1978. Of all the regions that have experienced dengue outbreaks in mainland China, the city of Guangzhou is the most affected. This study aims to investigate the potential risk factors for dengue virus (DENV) transmission in Guangzhou, China, from 2006 to 2014. The impact of risk factors on DENV transmission was qualified by the q-values calculated using a novel spatial-temporal method, the GeoDetector model. Both climatic and socioeconomic factors were considered. The impacts on DF incidence of each single factor and the interaction of two factors were analysed. The results show that the number of days with rainfall of the month before last has the highest determinant power, with a q-value of 0.898 (P < 0.01); the q-values of the other factors related to temperature and precipitation were around 0.38–0.50. Integrating a Pearson correlation analysis, nonlinear associations were found between the DF incidence in Guangzhou and the climatic factors considered. The coupled impact of the different variables considered was enhanced compared with their individual effects. In addition, an increased number of tourists in the city were associated with a high incidence of DF. This study demonstrates that the number of rain days in a month has great influence on the DF incidence of the month after next; the temperature and precipitation have nonlinear impacts on the DF incidence in Guangzhou; both the domestic and overseas tourists coming to the city increase the risk of DENV transmission. These findings are useful in the risk assessment of DENV transmission, to predict DF outbreaks and to implement preventive DF reduction strategies.

Dengue fever and dengue virus in the People's Republic of China

“…72 Studies have shown that there is a significant positive correlation between dengue incidences and the activities of tourism and commerce. 8 Such correlations are also demonstrated in other studies. In WU ET AL.…”

“…In China, dengue expansion may also attribute to the rapid growth of economy and increasing international exchanges in the past 40 years 72 . Studies have shown that there is a significant positive correlation between dengue incidences and the activities of tourism and commerce 8 . Such correlations are also demonstrated in other studies.…”

“…3,4,7 Widespread of DENV has posed huge socioeconomic burden to global public health, of which Africa, Americas, Eastern Mediterranean, South-East Asia and Western Pacific are most affected. 4,[8][9][10] To date, there are neither an antiviral drug approved nor a vaccine being widely used for the therapy and prophylaxis of dengue. The prevention and control of dengue outbreaks are primarily relying on the measures taken to reduce the occurrence of dengue diseases.…”

Paediatric dengue infection in Cirebon, Indonesia: a temporal and spatial analysis of notified dengue incidence to inform surveillance

“…Interestingly, we found a negative association between rainfall and dengue incidence in the following two months, although the effect was relatively weak. Similar results has also been reported by a study in Guangzhou [54], but our finding was in disagreement with a study conducted in Yogyakarta [49] which found a positive correlation between rainfall and dengue incidence. It is known that rainfall can provide considerable amounts of waterbodies which allow mosquitoes to breed and complete their immature stage and thus could increase mosquito population in the environment.…”

Seroprevalence and associated risk factors of Dengue fever in Kassala state, eastern Sudan

“…aegypti mosquitoes was significant in all clusters in the present study. Recent study in China has demonstrated the great impact of rains, temperature, and precipitation on DENV transmission [ 63 ].…”