Risk Influence Analysis Assessing the Profitability of Large Photovoltaic Plant Construction Projects

Abstract

The global energy system is in a phase of change for power generation technologies which involve traditional fossil fuel-based technologies to renewable energy-based systems, thanks to lower construction costs, mainly for photovoltaic energy, and changes in countries’ energy policies. In the case of Spain, both factors have led to a reactivation of renewable technologies, which can be found from the data on requests for access and connection to the electricity transmission network that are being processed in Red Eléctrica de España (REE). The requests that were granted access to the network exceeded 100 GW of power in November 2019 alone, and the companies which made the requests must commence electricity production by 2025. During the early stage of approval considerations, it is necessary to carry out an influence study of the risks that can already be identified, as this would enable determining the effects of these risks on the project’s main financial parameters. Based on a risk identification for similar prior projects, experts are typically asked to make their judgments on the influence of such risks on the main economic variables of a project, focusing on the project’s cost, time, and scope. By applying the fuzzy sets, these judgments can be transformed into triangular values that, through Monte Carlo simulation, allow us to assess the influence of these risks on the main financial parameters: the net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), and payback (PB); as a result of obtaining these parameters, a response to project risks can be planned. To check the functionality of the model, it was applied to a case study involving a construction project for a 250 MW photovoltaic plant located in Murcia (Spain). The application of this methodology allowed us to determine which evaluation criteria are most appropriate based on the philosophy of the PMO (Project Management Office) and the data that were obtained.

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