Risk prioritisation using fuzzy analytic network process: A case of Addis–Djibouti railway construction project

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to develop a risk assessment model to prioritise the risks of railway construction projects. A fuzzy analytic network process (FANP) is employed to rank project risks based on the likelihood of project risks and their impact on cost and time. Fuzzy set theory is used to represent the vagueness in each expert's judgment, while ANP is used to deal with interdependence and feedback effects of risks. The data for this study was collected through literature reviews, interviews, and questionnaires. According to the study results, the right-of-way corresponds to the top risk that has highest impact on time and cost. Construction errors and incomplete contract details were found to rank second and third in terms of risk severity. Similarly, design changes and lack of coordination among parties are ranked fourth and fifth, respectively. The study results help practitioners and decisionmakers understand the main risks of the Ethiopian railway construction projects and take proactive actions accordingly. Furthermore, this paper can help researchers' model project risks and analyse their impact on project objectives considering uncertainty, interdependence, and feedback.

The validity study of a channel‐based demand estimation ANP model

“…Because of the capability of quantifying the subjective criteria, examining difficult decisions under uncertainty, and simplicity, these techniques are used in many research papers in a wide variety of fields. For example, AHP and ANP models are applied in construction project (Gashaw & Jilcha, 2022), financial investment (Çalık et al, 2019), location problem (Bottero & Ferretti, 2011), supplier selection (Kasirian et al, 2013), scheduling (Momoh & Zhu, 2003), performance indicator selection in the healthcare sector (Khan et al, 2022; Moons et al, 2019), deciding on copyrights on the Internet (Andreichicova & Andreichicov, 2012), and industry 4.0 implementation (Nimawat & Gidwani, 2021). Due to their applicability in variety of areas, some studies have proposed the algorithms to ease the process of the AHP and ANP structure design (e.g., Ergu et al, 2011; Khademi et al, 2012).…”