RiskScape: a flexible multi-hazard risk modelling engine

Paulik, Ryan; Horspool, Nick; Woods, Richard; Griffiths, Nick; Beale, Tim; Magill, Christina; Wild, Alec; Popovich, Benjamin; Walbran, Glenn; Garlick, Russel

doi:10.1007/s11069-022-05593-4

Cited by 24 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Cumulative tsunami damages in response to RSLR were analysed using the multihazard impact model framework supported by the RiskScape software [31]. RiskScape implements modeller-defined risk quantification workflows as model pipelines.…”

Section: Tsunami Damage Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Sea-Level Rise Effects on Changing Hazard Exposure to Far-Field Tsunamis in a Volcanic Pacific Island

Welsh¹,

Williams²,

Bosserelle³

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Coastal flooding exacerbated by climate change is recognised as a major global threat which is expected to impact more than a quarter of people currently residing in Pacific Islands countries. While most research in the last decade has focused on understanding the dynamics and impacts of future coastal flooding from extreme sea levels, relative sea level rise (RSLR) effects on tsunami hazards are not well understood. Far-field or distant-sourced tsunamis tend to have relatively lower impacts in Pacific Island states compared with locally sourced events, but there is limited understanding on how the impact of far-field tsunamis changes over time due to RSLR. Using the hydrodynamics software BG-Flood, we modelled the Tōhoku tsunami from propagation to inundation in Samoa under incremental SLR to examine the effects that RSLR has on changing the exposure of the built environment (e.g., buildings) to a far-field tsunami. Outputs of maximum tsunami inundation and flow depth intensities which incorporate incremental SLR were then combined with digital representations of buildings and depth-damage functions in the RiskScape multi-hazard risk modelling software to assess the changes in building exposure over time. Results indicate that present day buildings exposure in Samoa to a Tōhoku-oki type far-field tsunami will increase by approx. 600% with 1 m RSLR by 2080–2130, and approx. 2,350% with 2 m RSLR by 2130–2140. These findings provide a useful baseline for tsunami hazard risk assessment under changing sea level conditions in analogous island environments.

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Section: Tsunami Damage Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Sea-Level Rise Effects on Changing Hazard Exposure to Far-Field Tsunamis in a Volcanic Pacific Island

Welsh¹,

Williams²,

Bosserelle³

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…Responding to this need, models to capture risk-defined as the product of hazard, exposure and vulnerability by the IPCC (Field et al 2014)-are increasingly developed in an open-source manner (e.g., Aznar-Siguan and David 2019, Koks 2022, Paulik et al 2023. However, many off-the-shelf input data sets for risk computations may not have global coverage, and bespoke models frequently focus on a single component of the risk equation, especially on the hazard side (cf Yamazaki et al 2011, Bloemendaal et al 2020, Lüthi et al 2021, Pagani et al 2022.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

OpenStreetMap for multi-faceted climate risk assessments

Mühlhofer,

Kropf,

Riedel

et al. 2024

Environ. Res. Commun.

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Natural hazards pose significant risks to human lives, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Understanding risks along all these dimensions is critical for effective adaptation planning and risk management. However, climate risk assessments mostly focus on population, economic asset values, and road or building infrastructure, because publicly available data on more diverse exposures are scarce. The increasing availability of crowd-sourced geospatial data, notably from OpenStreetMap, opens up a novel means for assessing climate risk to a large range of physical assets. To this end, we present a stand-alone, lightweight, and highly flexible Python-based OpenStreetMap data extraction tool: OSM-flex. To demonstrate the potential and limitations of OpenStreetMap data for risk assessments, we couple OSM-flex to the open-source natural hazard risk assessment platform CLIMADA and compute winter storm risk and event impacts from winter storm Lothar across Switzerland to forests, UNESCO heritage sites, railways, healthcare facilities, and airports. Contrasting spatial patterns of risks on such less conventional exposure layers with more traditional risk metrics (asset damages and affected population) reveals that risk hot-spots are inhomogeneously and distinctly distributed. For instance, impacts on forestry are mostly expected in Western Switzerland in the Jura mountain chain, whereas economic asset damages are concentrated in the urbanized regions around Basel and Zurich and certain train lines may be most often affected in Central Switzerland and alpine valleys. This study aims to highlight the importance of conducting multi-faceted and high-resolution climate risk assessments and provides researchers, practitioners, and decision-makers with potential open-source software tools and data suggestions for doing so.

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“…An economic impact assessment was carried out for a Mw7.5 Wellington Fault Scenario. Damage modeling was largely produced using RiskScape (Paulik et al, 2022) and economic impact assessment of disruption impacts was produced using MERIT (www.merit.org.nz).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using an integrated dynamic economic model to support infrastructure investment decision-making

Brown,

McDonald,

McDonald

et al. 2023

Earthquake Spectra

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Evaluating investment options to enhance earthquake resilience of infrastructure requires a deep understanding of the economic impacts of loss of infrastructure services. This article presents an economic impact assessment of a hypothetical Wellington Fault earthquake event to support the case for a suite of infrastructure resilience enhancements in Wellington, New Zealand. The project builds a comprehensive picture of the event, pre-investment, including electricity disruptions of up to 6 months, temporary population movement of 25%, and business relocation of up to 11% in some industries. MERIT, a dynamic economic analysis tool specifically designed to evaluate “shock” events, estimates the proposed investment options (valued at NZD2016 2.2–2.6 billion) result in reduced event losses of NZD2016 6 billion over 5 years. The project illustrates the need to continue improving modeling capability to support decision processes and to concurrently evolve decision-making processes to match our increasingly sophisticated, dynamic, and multi-dimensional economic evaluation tools.

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RiskScape: a flexible multi-hazard risk modelling engine

Cited by 24 publications

References 24 publications

Sea-Level Rise Effects on Changing Hazard Exposure to Far-Field Tsunamis in a Volcanic Pacific Island

Sea-Level Rise Effects on Changing Hazard Exposure to Far-Field Tsunamis in a Volcanic Pacific Island

OpenStreetMap for multi-faceted climate risk assessments

Using an integrated dynamic economic model to support infrastructure investment decision-making

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