Background
In September 2004, rofecoxib was voluntarily withdrawn from the worldwide market. Our objective was to determine whether and when analysis of published and unpublished placebo-controlled trials could have revealed cardiovascular risk associated with rofecoxib before its withdrawal as an example to inform future post-market pharmaceutical safety surveillance efforts.
Methods
We conducted a cumulative subject-level pooled analysis of data from all randomized, placebo-controlled trials of rofecoxib conducted by the manufacturer before September 2004. Our main outcome measurement was incidence of any investigator-reported death from any cause or cardiovascular thromboembolic (CVT) adverse event.
Results
We identified 30 randomized, placebo-controlled trials of rofecoxib that enrolled 20,152 subjects. Trial duration ranged from 4 weeks to 4 years, enrollment ranged from 17 to 2586 subjects prescribed either rofecoxib or placebo, and rofecoxib dosage ranged from 12.5 mg to 50 mg. As of December 2000, 21 (70%) of these trials had been completed and the risk of CVT adverse event or death was greater among subjects assigned to rofecoxib, with the difference being borderline statistically significant (Rate Ratio [RR]=2.18, 95% Confidence Interval [CI], 0.93–5.81; p=0.07). Subsequently collected data strengthened the statistical association (as of June 2001: RR=1.35, 95% CI, 1.00–1.96; p=0.05; as of April 2002: RR=1.39, 95% CI, 1.07–1.80; p=0.02).
Conclusion
Cumulative pooled analysis of all randomized, placebo-controlled trials demonstrates a progressing trend toward increased cardiovascular risk associated with rofecoxib compared with placebo as early as December 2000, reaching a P value of 0.05 by June 2001, nearly 3 and a half years before the manufacturer’s voluntary market withdrawal.