Rubber Plantation Retiring with Simulation of Market-Priced Ecosystem Services in Xishuangbanna, China

Abstract

Background: Until 50 years ago, Xishuangbanna was a heavy forest-covered region with high biodiversity. Attributed to the rubber boom that took place in the region during the last decades, natural forest area decreased quickly and was replaced by monoculture rubber plantations (Hevea brasiliensis). To slow down the deforestation rate and encourage rubber plantation retiring, a market and government-combined compensatory payment system was developed with consideration of market-priced ecosystem services. Results: In the baseline scenario, the annual retiring rate reduced from 9,353±17.8 ha to 4,669±18.5 ha in the projection period, and the final total retiring area in 2050 was 202.477±0.063 thousand ha. The compensatory payment increased along with the growth of rubber plantations. In the projected period (2021-2050), the total NPV (net present value) of compensatory payment was $3,364.820±1.669 million. The total carbon sequestration benefit resulting from replacement of artificial rainforests was 11.718±0.005 million tC. In sensitivity analyses, more uncertainties of compensatory payment were expected with a higher variation of rubber price. The rise of carbon price, discount rate and traditional medicine price, and the decrease of rubber price and final retiring rate could reduce the total NPV of payment. Conclusions: The market and government-combined payment system has high possibility to effectively encourage rubber retiring and reduce government payment. By the projection of the market and government-combined payment system, most of the small patches of rubber plantation were disappeared in 2050. The annual retiring area decreased gradually along the projection period. The projected compensatory payment and the area-specific payment increased, while the increment of compensatory payment decreased. The carbon sequestration benefit by rubber plantation retiring was negative in the first decade. All the tested factors (i.e., rubber price, rubber price variation, carbon price, final retiring rate, discount rate, and traditional medicine price) could affect the compensatory payment. Currently, the payment system may not so attractive; however, the situation could change when more market-priced ecosystem services are involved in the system.