Rumor has it: The role of social ties and misinformation in evacuation to nearby shelters after disaster

Fraser, Timothy; Morikawa, Larissa; Aldrich, Daniel P.

doi:10.1016/j.crm.2021.100320

Cited by 15 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…This is because associations are reported to frequently build ties across different racial, ethnic, income, and age groups . These inter-group ties help bridge divides and reduce inter-ethnic conflict (Varshney 2001), share information about evacuation (Fraser, Morikawa, & Aldrich 2021), and recover from crisis ).…”

Section: Bridging Social Capitalmentioning

confidence: 99%

Do all roads lead to Sapporo? The role of linking and bridging ties in evacuation decisions

Fraser¹,

Aldrich²,

Morikawa³

2022

E&S

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Why do some communities evacuate long-distances in higher rates than others after disaster? This mixed-methods study uses a new dataset of long-distance evacuation rates after Hokkaido's Eastern Iburi Earthquake in September 2018, aggregated to the city level from geolocated Facebook user movement. We found that communities with stronger linking and bridging social capital tended to see much lower evacuation rates to distant towns. We used statistical models, fieldwork, and content analysis of 12 interviews, finding that despite rumors on social media, communities with stronger linking social networks had greater trust in government and decided to stay in local evacuation shelters. This was especially the case if these communities also had stronger bridging social networks, helping them access key information, especially among vulnerable communities. Meanwhile, residents with weaker linking or bridging networks may have believed rumors of extreme water, food, and power shortages and left town for good. This study highlights the importance of trust in local officials when managing evacuation after disasters.

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Section: Bridging Social Capitalmentioning

confidence: 99%

Do all roads lead to Sapporo? The role of linking and bridging ties in evacuation decisions

Fraser¹,

Aldrich²,

Morikawa³

2022

E&S

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“…For example, Figure 3 projects much more evacuation between cities with high bridging social capital for the Jackson Flood ( b = 0.44, p < .001), Chiba Floods ( b = 0.55, p < .001), and Hurricane Dorian ( b = 0.22, p < .001). This relates to recent literature, which highlighted that diverse, bridging social ties aid evacuation in the US (Sadri et al, 2017) and Japan (Fraser, Morikawa, et al, 2021). In other cases, such as this study’s tornado, power outage, and fires, the trend flipped; communities with strong bridging social ties saw less movement, such as the Getty Fire ( b = −0.13, p < .001).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 73%

“…In other cases, such as this study’s tornado, power outage, and fires, the trend flipped; communities with strong bridging social ties saw less movement, such as the Getty Fire ( b = −0.13, p < .001). Based on past scholarship, we might expect that bridging ties there helped residents stay local and access shelters (Fraser, Morikawa, et al, 2021).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some residents hesitate to evacuate due to security concerns about staying at shelters with others (Kakimoto et al, 2016), leaving behind pets (Farmer et al, 2016), partisan perceptions of risk or dissuasion by political pundits (Long et al, 2020), distrust of public officials (Burnside, 2006), risk to hospital patients’ health (McGinty et al, 2017), or, more recently, risk of exposure to COVID-19 (Collins et al, 2021). Recent studies show that evacuation depends especially on residents’ social vulnerability due to race and class (Elliott et al, 2010), gender, age, or health status (Nakai et al, 2016) or due to levels of community engagement and social capital (Fraser, Morikawa, et al, 2021; Sadri et al, 2017; Shoji & Murata, 2020). Others investigated the effects of evacuation lead-time on disaster deaths (Zahran et al, 2013), while others mapped or simulated evacuation scenarios at local levels to identify obstacles and patterns at the hyper-local level (Na & Banerjee, 2015; Zhao et al, 2020).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…1, followed by Japan as no. 3); both are liberal democracies, and both share a considerable body of research highlighting the role of social capital (a key topic of interest in this study) in disasters following recent hurricanes (Aldrich & Crook, 2008; Metaxa-Kakavouli et al, 2018; Sadri et al, 2017) and earthquakes (Aldrich, 2012; Fraser, Morikawa, et al, 2021).…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Road More Traveled: Evacuation Networks in the US and Japan

Fraser

2022

Environment and Behavior

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When crisis strikes, where do evacuees go? This question affects how policymakers and first responders allocate their time, funds, and resources after disaster. While past research compared evacuation rates of cities within the same disaster, evacuation among different types of disasters remain under-examined. This mixed methods study compares evacuation patterns from 7,631 cities among 10 major disasters in the US and Japan between 2019 and 2020, combining social network analysis, modeling, and visualization. This study highlights that evacuation from some hazards is more alike than others; large, sprawling disasters, including some storms, fires, and power outages trigger both clustered and dispersed evacuation networks, while smaller, focused disaster result in mainly dispersed evacuation networks. Further, cities with similar levels of social capital tend to see greater evacuation between them. By uncovering the different shapes and drivers of evacuation networks across different disasters, scholars can clarify where evacuees go and which kinds of cities need additional support after crisis.

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Fleeing the unsustainable city: soft policy and the dual effect of social capital in hurricane evacuation

Fraser

2022

Sustain Sci

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Rumor has it: The role of social ties and misinformation in evacuation to nearby shelters after disaster

Cited by 15 publications

References 57 publications

Do all roads lead to Sapporo? The role of linking and bridging ties in evacuation decisions

Do all roads lead to Sapporo? The role of linking and bridging ties in evacuation decisions

The Road More Traveled: Evacuation Networks in the US and Japan

Fleeing the unsustainable city: soft policy and the dual effect of social capital in hurricane evacuation

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