Runoff Voters Will Do the Darndest Things: An Analysis of the 2008 Georgia Democratic Senate Runoff

Abstract

<jats:p>Testing the frontrunner loses myth and minority loses myth, this paper examines the 2008 Georgia Democratic Senate runoff between Vernon Jones and Jim Martin. Despite winning 40 per-cent of the primary vote, Jones lost in the runoff to Jim Martin. Methods: We use a variety of data to determine what factors were having the greatest effect on the election. Results: Vernon Jones's strongest support came from the rural counties of central and southern Georgia. While Jones did win high levels of support in counties with large black populations, the fact that Jones was not performing as well in counties in metro Atlanta highlights that controversies surrounding Jones may have been playing a larger role than race. Conclusions: The lack of black voter turnout in the runoff illustrates the problems that even a black candidate has in motivating black voters to return for the runoff.</jats:p>