Russian High-Technology Complex under Low Inflation and Government Support Limitation: The Condition, Capacity and Tendencies for Development

Abstract

The article aims to reconstruct and analyze the development trends of the Russian high-tech complex in 2011-2017. The main goal is to assess the development potential of the high-tech complex in 2018-2020 taking into consideration the state defense order financing, export supplies of weapons and military equipment, as well as civil output of the defense and nuclear industries. The findings showed that until 2014 the growth rates of the defense complex approximately correspond to official data, whereas in 2016-2017 there was a turnaround as in some subsectors the real growth was significantly lower than expected. It enables us to predict that the preservation of the current economic policy in the field of defense and security may lead to a reduction in the high-tech complex output from 2020. Meanwhile, it appears that at the moment there are no macroeconomic limitations that would hinder the positive dynamics continuation of the high-tech complex development provided changes in economic policy.