Russian Intervention in Syria: Exploring the Nexus between Regime Consolidation and Energy Transnationalisation

Abstract

Interpretations of Russia’s military intervention in Syria overwhelmingly focus on Russia’s political motivations. An alternative view foregrounds Russia’s economic motivations, namely, the construction of a multi-billion-dollar gas pipeline traversing Iran, Iraq and Syria. This article examines the salience of Russia’s economic motivations and considers two related aspects: First, if Russian intervention aims to secure areas of strategic importance for the proposed pipeline. Second, if Russian intervention realises longer term political and commercial interests that include proposed future pipeline projects. The evidence suggests Russian military policies towards Syria are unlikely to be motivated primarily by the prospect of a proposed gas pipeline, but that regime consolidation is a more immediate policy goal. This article then posits that Russian intervention has a distinct ‘dual logic’ aimed at integrating the interests of key regional actors into a transnational energy network, while stabilising Russia’s regional dominance within this network.

Why did Putin go too far? The rationality of Vladimir Putin’s decision to begin a war with Ukraine

“…In 2014, Ukraine was unable to defend itself effectively (Westerlund & Norberg, 2016). In turn, expeditionary forces in Syria fought against lightly armed partisans (Maher & Pieper, 2021). In addition, one of the axioms adopted without any doubt was the conviction that the Ukrainian army was incapable and reluctant to any effective and long-lasting resistance.…”