SARS-CoV-2: virus dynamics and host response

Abstract

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Stochastic Compartmental Modelling of SARS-CoV-2 with Approximate Bayesian Computation

“…For a fatal illness like SARS-CoV-2, it would be valuable to add these parameters to the model. However, for the purpose of this proof-of-concept study, we estimate that adding these parameters will negligibly affect the goodness-of-fit of the total confirmed cases (Chen & Li 2020). We extrapolate the model for each region by allowing it to run until no active infections remain (Fig.…”

COVID-19: Coronavirus replication, pathogenesis, and therapeutic strategies

“…[40][41][42] A study of a limited number of patients hospitalized with mild or severe COVID-19 revealed humoral immunoglobulin M (IgM) and immunoglobulin G (IgG) serum responses to the viral nucleocapsid and spike proteins emerging at 10 days after symptom onset, with serconversion in a sizable majority of patients by 3 weeks. 2,43,44 Moreover, the IgG levels correlated with virus neutralization titers. Transfusion of convalescent plasma from recovered patients had benefi cial outcomes in a small number of SARS and COVID-19 cases.…”

“…38 Several reports also confi rm high levels of IL-6 in severely ill patients. 2,39 Retrospective clinical investigation of more patient cohorts without or with preexisting conditions and of those being treated with distinct anti-infl ammatory immune modulators-eg, anti-TNF, anti-IL-6, anti-IL12/IL23, or anti-IL-1 betafor immune-mediated infl ammatory conditions will provide much-needed guidance on treatment to stem severe COVID-19.…”

“…1 As in severe SARS and MERS disease, the mortality rate is disproportionately high in the elderly and patients with preexisting comorbidities such as heart disease, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and renal disease. 2 Higher morbidity in the elderly may partly be attributed to muted interferon antiviral responses (although the suggestive study has not yet been peer-reviewed) 3 as well as overall lower adaptive immunity, 2 resulting, paradoxically, in longer courses of hyperactivity of the innate immune system ("cytokine storm").…”

Genetic drift versus regional spreading dynamics of COVID-19

“…area. Pure case incidence models depend on a variety of factors (global traveling, founder effect versus time from initial infection 2 , population clustering in big cities, social dynamics, governmental policies, infectious ability of the virus15,16 , lead-time bias on case confirmation 2 , COVID-19 containment procedures). Among them, a major confounding factor in COVID-19 is the time of initial infection at any given place, which, everything else being equal, leads to vastly different absolute numbers of derived cases 2 .…”