Scale-dependent complexity in administrative units and implications for data-driven decision-making models

Abstract

Through analysis and discussion of basic systemic properties of a rural municipality, this paper explores how aggregating data in planning and land use modeling can potentially obscure intricate real-world behavior. Complexity theory is applied as a theoretical framework for explaining this hypothesis. Thus, the aim of this study is to address the author’s desire to understand systemic complexity when designing a data-driven decision-making model for rural planning. The novelty of this approach is two-fold: one, most studies on scalability issues in planning addresses spatial complexity, more so than systemic complexity within the complex system that the very act of planning strives to dictate. Two, although delimited to the scope of the study, the accessibility to and use of complete and valid socio-demographic data enables a rarely demonstrated accurate representation of an entire population. It is ultimately observed that on the disaggregated municipal level, systemic dispersion increases parallelly with population size, a correlation that is significantly influenced by gender ratio in any given parish – a characteristic that was not visible at the aggregated municipal level. In addition to advancing the understanding and placement of complexity science within spatial data science, these insights will make it easier to assess the generalizability of any given administrative unit by quantifying basic complexity attributes; in this case based on the correlation dispersion caused by the fragmentation of a municipality into its comprising parishes.