Scenario analyses on the effects of forest management and CMIP5 climate projections on timber production and carbon stocks of upland boreal forests in Finland

Abstract

This study employed scenario analyses to evaluate the effects of forest management and different CMIP5 climate projections on timber production and carbon stocks of upland boreal forests in Finland. The forest ecosystem model simulations were conducted over a 90-year period from the stand to regional level by using both model stand data (Paper I) and national forest inventory data (Papers II-III). In simulations, it was employed data from the current climate and several CMIP5 projections (multi-model means and individual climate model runs) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 forcing scenarios. More specifically, it was studied the impacts of different climate projections and thinning regimes (Papers I and III), tree species preferences in forest regeneration (Paper II) and forest conservation scenarios (Paper III) on volume growth, carbon stocks and timber production (Papers I-III), economic profitability (Paper I), and the amount of deadwood of forests (Paper III).The effects of different climate projections on volume growth, carbon stocks, timber production and its economic profitability and the amount of deadwood varied largely, depending on geographical region, tree species, and severity of climate change. The degree of differences in the responses of tree species and boreal regions increased with the severity of climate change (Papers I-III). Regardless of the tree species, the positive impacts of climate change were larger in the north. In the south, Silver birch benefitted most from the climate change projections and the most under severe climate change. This was unlike Norway spruce and also partially, Scots pine (Papers I-II). An increase in forest conservation area increased volume growth, carbon stock, and the amount of deadwood in forests, unlike timber production. Depending on boreal region, tree species, and severity of climate change, different adaptive forest management measures would be needed to utilize the positive impacts of climate change and to minimize harmful ones.