Scenario-based planning for a dynamic tourism system with carbon footprint analysis: A case study of Xingwen Global Geopark, China

Luo, Yuyan; Mou, Yu; Zhong, Wang; Su, Zerui; Qin, Yong

doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.119999

Cited by 30 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…SD has been implemented in various subfields of tourism management, such as accommodation (33,34), natural attractions (35,36), and tourism operations (37). In the last decade, this method has been widely applied to destination management (38).…”

Section: Figure 1 Tpb With Risk Perception (4)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyzing COVID-19 Post-Pandemic Recovery Process in Azores Archipelago

Behradfar

Castanho

Couto

et al. 2022

Konuralp Tıp Dergisi

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Objective: The Small Islands Developing States (SIDS) are specific regions that mainly depend on tourism industry and sector. The pandemic of COVID-19 has strongly affected the tourism management in these areas. In this study, we aim to design and test recovery strategies to represent practical solutions based on the concept of risk perception as a significant issue in the intention and attitude of tourists toward behavior. Methods: In this regard, we use the theory of planned behavior (TPB) to provide an accurate simulation and evaluation to develop a model including four distinct strategies: social distancing, tax reduction policy, travel bubble, and joint strategy. Results:The outcomes indicate that the most efficient way to alter tourism behavior intention and attitude is the travel bubble strategy. Conclusions: Remarkable reduction in tourism arrival could be an advantage to use existing opportunities toward sustainable development plans in the Azores Archipelago as the chosen case study in this study.

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Section: Figure 1 Tpb With Risk Perception (4)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyzing COVID-19 Post-Pandemic Recovery Process in Azores Archipelago

Behradfar

Castanho

Couto

et al. 2022

Konuralp Tıp Dergisi

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“…SD has been used for different areas of research in tourism, such as accommodation (Dhirasasna et al, 2020;Rudan, 2014), natural attractions (Luo et al, 2020;Nugroho et al, 2019), tour operators (Marko, 2014) and some specific areas religious tourism (Jakulin & Clarke, 2017) and event tourism (Golob & Jere, 2014). In recent years, the most widely used area of SD is destination management (Lu et al, 2019).…”

Section: Sd Models For Tourism Destination Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…SD is dependent on the causal relationships among system variables (Sterman, 2000). Other prediction models, such as time series forecast models and neural network models, are highly dependent on historical data and previous trends so they will perform poorly when conditions are unstable and the structure of the data has changed dramatically (Luo et al, 2020). COVID-19 is a new type of pandemic and its characteristics and degree of interaction with the world are different from the past pandemics.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) COVID-19 post-pandemic tourism recovery: A system dynamics approach

Onggo

Kunc

et al. 2021

Current Issues in Tourism

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The economy of Small Island Developing States (SIDS) is highly dependent on tourism and travel sector. Under the impact of COVID-19, these islands have suffered strongly. Possible recovery strategies are tested through exploring the concept of risk perception as an important factor to influence the behaviour intention under the framework of theory of planned behaviour (TPB). A behavioural simulation is built to help evaluate tourism policies. This paper takes Maldives as an example. Four strategies are tested in the model: social distancing, tax reduction strategy, travel bubble strategy and joint strategy. The results show that the most effective way to change tourist behaviour intention is the travel bubble strategy. The results also indicate that the reduction in tourism arrivals may bring opportunities for local ecosystem recovery. This study exemplifies the advantage of using the system dynamics approach when the past pattern is not a good predictor for the future by making predictions based on how the system works.

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“…Scenario planning has been presented in various ways in many destinations around the world. A study in China (Luo et al , 2020) identified carbon emission levels and economic prioritisation as the scenario drivers. This resulted to five different scenarios classified from worst (low tourism and high carbon emission) to best (high tourism and low carbon emission).…”

Section: The Future Of Tourism Policy and Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

A content analysis of the future of tourism through the presidential state of the nation address in the Philippines (1987-2019)

Capistrano

Notorio

2020

JTF

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Purpose This study aims to examine the underlying statements with regard to strategic directions and action programmes on tourism found in the state-of-the-nation address (SONA) speeches of six Philippine presidents – from 1987 to 2019. The researchers believe that president SONAs are usually reflective of their plans and are strong indicators of their interest, which could particularly influence the Philippine tourism planning and development. Currently, the lack of guidance in the theoretical framework and research discussion in exploring the Philippine tourism policy and development priorities using presidents’ SONA speeches are found wanting. Scenario planning approach was used as a framework. Design/methodology/approach Scenario planning approach requires inputs from an advisory group to create scenario drivers. As inputs, the presidents’ SONA speeches were used in this study while the researchers assumed the role of scenario thinkers. The speeches were downloaded and imported into a qualitative data software. Through a series of text search with regard to strategic directions and action programmes on tourism, underlying statements were subjected to content analysis to create nodes. The nodes were used as the basis in creating scenario drivers, which became the basis in creating the model. The models underwent the following validation procedures: researcher, concept and literature review. Findings Based on the data, there are three identified major drivers of the present and future of Philippine tourism; these are tourism policy, tourism development and prospects for the future (temporal element). It also indicates tourism development and temporal element as dominant, with very few on tourism policies. By combining the tourism policy and tourism development, the development of the tourism policy and development confluence model was created. Meanwhile, the addition of the temporal element provided a third scenario driver that led to the creation of the dimensions of tourism policy and development scenarios. Practical implications The developed model can be adapted to many contexts that extend even outside of tourism. The public tourism offices, such as the department of tourism and the regional, provincial, city and municipal tourism offices, can use the model to help them prioritise tourism development programmes and lobby for tourism policy creation. Social implications The model will significantly assist decision-makers and policymakers to be conscious in crafting and enacting their tourism plans and programmes. It presents tourism policy and tourism development as scenario drivers that are interrelated; hence, a mutual relationship between the executive and legislative sectors of the government can be expected. Originality/value The study positions its originality and value in three areas: scenario planning, tourism future and president’s interest in tourism. In terms of scenario planning, the study was able to present interaction among three scenario drivers compared to most models that only have two. In the area of tourism future studies, this study claims that qualitative historical data can also be used to predict future scenarios. Despite the limited literature examining the tourism interest of the top-level administration, using speeches made by head of state is found plausible to predict the future of Philippine tourism.

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Scenario-based planning for a dynamic tourism system with carbon footprint analysis: A case study of Xingwen Global Geopark, China

Cited by 30 publications

References 32 publications

Analyzing COVID-19 Post-Pandemic Recovery Process in Azores Archipelago

Analyzing COVID-19 Post-Pandemic Recovery Process in Azores Archipelago

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) COVID-19 post-pandemic tourism recovery: A system dynamics approach

A content analysis of the future of tourism through the presidential state of the nation address in the Philippines (1987-2019)

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