Scenario forecast of the development of the Northern Sea Route

Комков, Н. И.; Селин, В. С.; Цукерман, В. А.; Goryachevskaya, E. S.

doi:10.1134/s1075700716020076

Cited by 20 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…Общие вопросы управления инновационным промышленным развитием экономики регионов отражены в работах Л. М. Гохберга, И. А. Кузнецовой, Е. Б. Ленчук, Г. А. Власкина, А. А. Дынкина, Н. И. Ивановой, Р. М. Нижегородцева, С. М. Никитенко, А. Е. Курносовой, Е. К. Чиркуновой, Н. П. Горидько, А. И. Татаркина, В. А. Цукермана, В. С. Жарова, А. В. Козлова, С. Гутмана, А. Тесли и др. [199][200][201][202][203][204][205][206][207][208][209][210][211][212].…”

Section: влияние инновационной деятельности на экономическое развитиеunclassified

Управление Инновационным Развитием Промышленности Арктической Зоны Российской Федерации

2020

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Теоретические основы системы управления инновационнопромышленным развитием…….…………………………………………….….. 3.2. Основные факторы устойчивого развития промышленности арктических регионов………………………………………………………….… 3.3. Влияние инновационной деятельности на экономическое развитие…………………………………………………………………………… 4. УПРАВЛЕНИЕ ЭКОЛОГО-ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ СИСТЕМОЙ АРКТИКИ……………………………………………………….………………… 4.1. Анализ показателей экологической сферы……………………................… 4.2. Анализ показателей экологической экономики промышленных предприятий………………………………………………………………………. 5. СОВЕРШЕНСТВОВАНИЕ ИНФРАСТРУКТУРЫ ПРОМЫШЛЕННОСТИ………………………………………………………….. 5.1. Методика расчёта уровня развития цифровой инфраструктуры промышленности в регионе и сравнительный анализ на примере территорий Российской Арктики………………...…………………………………………… 5.2. Совершенствование инновационной инфраструктуры поддержки промышленной деятельности……………………………………….…………… 5.3. Организационно-экономический механизм управления инновационным потенциалом промышленного кластера………………………………………...

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Section: влияние инновационной деятельности на экономическое развитиеunclassified

Управление Инновационным Развитием Промышленности Арктической Зоны Российской Федерации

2020

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“…Currently, there is no consensus among the ministries, companies, analysts and researchers as regards the potential transportation range along the NSR for the raw materials mined in the Arctic zone of Russia for the time period of up to 2025 and beyond. The values vary widely from less than 45 to more than 90 million tons (i.e., Grigoriev (2018), Komkov et al (2016)); still all available estimates tend to revolve around one conclusion: the bulk of cargo traffic shall be comprised of hydrocarbons.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Northern Sea Route: Long-Term Impact on the Economic Development

PANKOVA¹

2020

III International Theoretical and Practical Conference “The Crossroads of the North and the East (Methodologies and Practices O

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The purpose of research is to carry out quantitative estimation of the effects of intensification in cargo shipping along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in consideration of various plausible perspectives for its viability. Using an multiregional input-output model, the country's economic development forecasts until 2030 are made through in three scenarios. Pursuant to the results of comparative analysis of their indicators, a negative economic impact is highly likely if using the NSR solely as a transit route for foreign vessels. In case in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation the implementation of infrastructural and resource projects takes place to enable export deliveries along the NSR, the prospects for 2030 are positive, and shall remain as such even when the unfavorable economic trends are modelled. Nonetheless, the realization of such a scenario leads towards an escalation in raw-material export orientation of the economy.

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“…Consumption growth has become an indisputable and fundamental driver of economic growth. The principle "to consume more next year than this year" has taken the place of the leading paradigm of modern society [58][59][60][61]. However, it is impossible to ignore the complex problems caused by the objectively limited global resources, as well as the fact that the growth of consumption inevitably leads to a rise in labor costs in the long term and negatively affects the labor market.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling Competition between Countries in the Development of Arctic Resources

Konyukhovskiy

Holodkova

Titov³

2019

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The article is devoted to the approaches that can be applied in the distribution of Arctic resources between the main reference countries of this region. The objective economic nature of the problems that arise in this region makes it possible to characterize them as a competition of claims for a limited and potentially dynamically changing resource. At a formal level, this problem has a general nature and it is typical for many areas of modern economy. At the same time, it is impossible to deny its specifics, which imposes significant restrictions on possible methods of solution. In recent years, problems in the sphere of interstate cooperation under conditions of limited resources have significantly increased. In such a situation, scientific and practical research in the field of mechanisms for regulating the relations between the parties (economic entities) becomes interesting. In analyzing the mechanisms of distribution of limited resources, one can use the theory of cooperative games, mathematical models of resource rationing, as well as works on the study of problems of equitable distribution (s.c. Fair Divisions). In the framework of such tasks, the range of applicants for limited resources can be limited to countries or regions directly adjacent. The process can be include of “external players” who have sufficient investment potential. The subsequent development and analysis of the problems of regulating intercountry interaction are associated with mathematical formalization. Such formalization presupposes a description of the situation of competitive interaction between countries in the form of a stochastic cooperative game. An analysis of possible concepts for the solution of this game will lead to meaningful conclusions about specific schemes (mechanisms) of rationing.

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Scenario forecast of the development of the Northern Sea Route

Cited by 20 publications

References 4 publications

Управление Инновационным Развитием Промышленности Арктической Зоны Российской Федерации

Управление Инновационным Развитием Промышленности Арктической Зоны Российской Федерации

The Northern Sea Route: Long-Term Impact on the Economic Development

Modeling Competition between Countries in the Development of Arctic Resources

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