Scenario Methods for Assessing the Efficiency of Legal Regulation of the Socio-Economic Systems Development Processes under Uncertainty

Abstract

The article deals with the study of methodological problems of increasing the effectiveness of legislative regulation of Russian society and the state socio-economic development processes in the face of severe sanctions pressure from Western countries led by the United States. A complex of problems of improving the quality of law-making processes is considered. To assess the effectiveness of legal norms, it is proposed to use criteria and mechanisms for evaluating their efficiency, reflecting the degree of the goals set achievement in the process of their development, taking into account the costs and expended resources of various types. To solve the problems of advanced assessment of the developed legal norms effectiveness, it is proposed to use the scenario analysis methodology, which provides the possibility of information support and assessment of the quality of regulatory and legal decisions development and implementation within the framework of lawmaking processes. The approach proposed for solving the problems under consideration is based on the development and study of simulation models that allow analyzing a wide class of processes and phenomena in the legal, socio-political and socio-economic spheres. The results obtained in the course of the study allow to conclude that it is expedient to introduce the scenario-forecasting expertise procedures into the practice of drafting legislative acts, their analysis and efficiency evaluation (including the assessment of the effectiveness of law enforcement practice), which will complement the set of currently used procedures for the comprehensive examination of draft laws (legal, juridical-technical, criminological, anti-corruption, linguistic, etc.).