Scenario model for assessing and predicting the risks of electrical installations based on the analysis of a human-machine system

Abstract

Currently, the search for effective decision-making methods based on the use of modern information technologies is an important factor in the management of semi-structured systems. The choice of the optimal solution, as a rule, is carried out in conditions of incomplete initial data, a plurality of opinions about goals, criteria and their preference; it is also necessary to take into account the factors of uncertainty and subjectivity of specialist experts and their relationship with the decision maker (LNR). It seems timely to create expert systems for solving the multicriteria problem of risk optimization under conditions of uncertainty. The resulting knowledge base should combine the mathematical decision-making apparatus (DM) with non-strict heuristic expert methods. Keywords: MAN-MADE FIRES, LEAKAGE CURRENTS IN ELECTRICAL INSTALLATIONS, THERMAL OVERLOAD, HUMAN-MACHINE SYSTEM