Scenario planning as a tool for strategic management of alternative energy development

Abstract

The article formalizes the scenario planning procedure in the field of alternative energy using the cross-factor analysis method. The purpose of the article is to formalize scenario planning for the development of the alternative energy sector in the context of strategic management. The following methods were used in order to achieve the goal: cross-factor analysis, scenario planning method, expert methods, and scenario tree. The study analyzed primary energy consumption by economic sector and the total supply of primary energy by source, resulting in a declining supply of non-renewable energy sources such as oil, gas, coal and growing supply of biomass and waste, which was a source of biofuel production. The grouping of biofuel properties from the point of view of its attractiveness as an alternative energy resource was carried out. Factors that can negatively affect the pace of development of biofuel production are systematized. Dominant factors that had a critical impact on the development of biofuels have been identified: fluctuations in prices for electricity production in the traditional way, change in the popularity of greenhouse gas emission reduction programs, fluctuations in the use of electric vehicles, fluctuations in prices for fossil fuels, change in funding for programs to reduce environmental pollution and climate change. Stages of scenario planning with the use of cross-factor analysis were offered. A scenario tree model was formed. A matrix of cross-influence was constructed using expert evaluation and a scale of relations. The procedure of cross-influence and determination of dominant factors influencing on the activity development of «biofuel production» was proposed, which was characterized by the use of crossfactor analysis, which allowed assessing the probability of scenarios, establishing the interaction between them, and further calculating the expected effect from the implementation of measures. The obtained results are a reference point in the transformational processes management of the economy in conditions of fuel and energy resource limitations. Applied research results and scenario assessments of the development potential of this activity direction can be used by entrepreneurs in the context of development and further implementation of investment projects for biofuel production.