Scenario planning tools for mitigating industrial impacts on First Nations subsistence economies in British Columbia, Canada

Abstract

The Montney Play Trend (MPT) is a 1090 km2 region in northeast British Columbia that produces approximately one-third of western Canada’s natural gas output. In response to a proposed expansion of the MPT in 2016, the Government of British Columbia launched a Regional Strategic Environmental Assessment (RSEA) to identify the necessary conditions to achieve sustainable environmental outcomes. In this paper, we describe the methods and scenario planning tools that were developed to estimate how the development of the MPT might affect the subsistence economies of First Nations in the region. To demonstrate the utility of our approach, two impact assessments—Prince Rupert gas transmission pipeline and the Coastal GasLink pipeline—are presented. While no scenario can provide a definitive portrayal of exactly what will happen in the future, the tools that were co-developed are serving as an effective starting point for exploring possibilities that are at least consistent with current knowledge and can serve as a platform for collaborative learning and conflict management.

Developing methods of knowledge co-production across varying contexts to shape Sustainability Science theory and practice

“…Contributors share diverse methodological approaches aimed at relationship building. Visual methods, including the 'serious game of Marae-oply' co-created by Blackett et al (2021), the future scenarios co-developed by Natcher et al (2021) and the 3D maps co-created by Hill et al (2021), are aimed to be highly interactive and can be used as boundary objects to facilitate exciting discussion within and between project partners. All methods and outcomes presented in this Special Feature were used to codevelop useful and meaningful knowledge to inform current and future decision making for cultural and natural resource management at particular places and specific times.…”

“…A further contribution on the topic of 'co-production research in action' comes from British Columbia, Canada, where Natcher and his Indigenous and non-indigenous coauthors present a case study of a 'knowledge partnership in action' developed between the researchers and the Saulteau First Nations (Natcher et al 2021). Importantly, the Saulteau First Nations were very keen to share their experiences with other Indigenous Nations who are also struggling to protect their lands, traditional economies and cultures from uninformed development.…”

“…Importantly, the Saulteau First Nations were very keen to share their experiences with other Indigenous Nations who are also struggling to protect their lands, traditional economies and cultures from uninformed development. Natcher et al (2021) share scenario planning tools that could be used to mitigate industrial impacts on First Nations subsistence economies. Their work provides insights from Canada into how a methodology (scenario planning), if co-developed, can result in a useful tool for First Nations partners to explore future possibilities and options for the development of local economies and serve as a tool for collaborative learning and conflict management.…”

A decision-making framework for promoting the optimum design and planning of Nature-based Solutions at local scale

“…In agreement with the Directive 2001/42/EC (2021), the UNP scenarios investigated in the present paper have been subjected to the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) that represents a systematic process for evaluating the sustainable implications of a proposed Policy, Plan or Program (PPP. It represents a process of systematic decision support for landscape and urban planning that includes a range of analytical and participatory approaches aiming to integrate environmental sustainability goals considerations into PPPs (Natcher et al, 2022). In this way, the SEA process provides for the planning of mitigation actions to reduce negative environmental impacts and to improve the quality of human life.…”

Formation of a brand of sustainable industrial development in the postwar period

“…Literature review. Natcher Naomi, et al [1] studied scenario planning tools to mitigate the industrial impact on the economy of agricultural regions. Riedy [2] proposed "discursive entrepreneurship" to form the structure of the discursive environment of the modern sustainable economy.…”