Scenario Simulation of Land Use and Cover under Safeguarding Ecological Security: A Case Study of Chang-Zhu-Tan Metropolitan Area, China

Abstract

Scenario-based simulation in land use and cover change (LUCC) is a practical approach to maintaining ecological security. Many studies generally set constraints of LUCC utilizing ecological patches but without consideration of corridors connecting these patches. Here, we constructed a framework to balance urban growth and ecological security by integrating ecological security patterns (ESPs) into the PLUS model. This study selected Chang-Zhu-Tan Metropolitan Area (CZTMA) in central China as a typical case. Specifically, coupling quantitative demand with spatial constraints of multiple levels of ESPs, this study designed four scenarios, including historical tendency (HT), urban growth (UG), ecological conservation (EC), and coordinating city development and ecological protection (CCE). Then, the transformations and landscape patterns of LUCC were analyzed to evaluate the future land change from 2020 to 2050. The results show sixty-one key ecological sources in the CZTMA, mainly in higher-elevation forested areas. Forty-six ecological corridors were estimated using circuit theory. The building expansion was driven by accessibility to transportation and government locations and will contribute to the loss of forest and cropland in the future. The feature of different scenarios in alleviating the increasing fragmentation of patches and reducing the loss amount of ecological land showed EC > CCE > HT > UG. This study developed the ESP-PLUS framework and its modeling idea, which has the potential to be applied in other regions. This extension would assist decision-makers and urban planners in formulating sustainable land strategies that effectively reconcile eco-environmental conservation with robust economic growth, achieving a mutually beneficial outcome.

Spatiotemporal Variation in Water-Related Ecosystem Services during 2000–2020 and Ecological Management Zoning in the Xiangjiang River Basin, China

“…The terrain is complex and diverse, and is mainly covered by mountains and hilly forests in the southern, eastern, and western areas, whereas the central and northern areas exhibit relatively flatter topography. Due to rapid economic growth and accelerated urbanization, especially regarding the rapid expansion of the Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration in the downstream area, the demand for WESs in the watershed continues to increase [56]. The growing demand for these services and the deteriorating ecological environment have put great pressure on the watershed ecosystem.…”

Assessing land-use changes and carbon storage: a case study of the Jialing River Basin, China

“…The model enhances the roulette wheel competition process and adaptive inertia within the FLUS model. Moreover, the integrated random forest algorithm of the model can effectively handle spatial autocorrelation and multicollinearity among the driving factors 11 , 14 . Consequently, the PLUS model can more accurately simulate various future land use scenarios and is extensively utilized 11 , 15 .…”

Construction of ecological security patterns and evaluation of connectivity stability under multi-scenario simulation: A case study in desert–oasis area of the Yellow River Basin, China

“…Early on, ecological sources were extracted directly from natural reserves or high-quality habitat patches [10], and there are currently two major approaches for identifying ecological sources: structure-oriented methods, such as morphological spatial pattern analysis (MSPA), which consider the structural connectivity between different patches [11][12], and function-oriented methods, such as coupling ecological importance and sensitivity to explore priority areas. Based on the significance of the indicators, patches with high ecological significance are identified as different from the surrounding landscape matrix [13][14] Compared to functionoriented methods, the structure-oriented methods used to establish ESP has been shown to improve network connectivity despite scale changes, and the MSPA approach has deficiencies in analyzing the impacts of disturbances surrounding the environment and spatial interactions among various landscape types [15][16]. When constructing ecological resistance surfaces, a comprehensive resistance surface map is constructed using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Delphi method, which have replaced the direct assignment of resistance values by experts [17].…”