Scientific Foresight and Cognitive Modeling of Socio-Economic Systems

Gorelova, Galina; Pankratova, N. D.

doi:10.1016/j.ifacol.2018.11.264

Cited by 19 publications

(9 citation statements)

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“…Для этого предлагается представлять ОСТС в определенной внешней среде Ω в виде когнитивной карты, а результаты принятия решений на разных этапах τ представлять сценариями развития ситуаций на когнитивной модели. Воспользуемся в этих целях инструментарием когнитивного моделирования сложных систем [17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24], первым этапом которого является разработка модели сложной системы в виде когнитивной карты или более сложной когнитивной моедели.…”

Section: рис 1 многоэтапный процесс принятия решенийunclassified

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Statement the Problem of Simulation of Decision-Making Processes in Complex Organizational-Technical Systems

Gorelova¹

2020

IZVESTIYA SFedU. ENGINEERING SCIENCES

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Section: рис 1 многоэтапный процесс принятия решенийunclassified

“…Всего циклов 214. Нечетное число (65) отрицательных циклов свидетельствует о структурной устойчивости системы [20][21][22][23].…”

Section: рис 2 когнитивная карта Gunclassified

Statement the Problem of Simulation of Decision-Making Processes in Complex Organizational-Technical Systems

Gorelova¹

2020

IZVESTIYA SFedU. ENGINEERING SCIENCES

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“…Thus, in the context of macroeconomic research, the foresight technology, first, includes the choice of target settings for the technological or socio-economic orientation of forecasts of economic systems; secondly, it is the basis for determining the future socio-economic development with the definition of a range of industries that can form the basis for strategic economic development; thirdly, it contains forecasting the development of new technologies and the entry of fundamentally new types of products into the market (Onder, 2017). Gorelova and Pankratova (2018) summarize the foresight of economic systems in their works. They use the methodology of cognitive modeling of complex systems (social, economic, ecological, political, and socio-technical) as a foresight tool.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Foresight technologies of economic systems: evidence from the tourism sector of Ukraine

Melnychenko

Boiko

Okhrimenko

et al. 2020

Problems and Perspectives in Management

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Nowadays, it is imperative to use forecasting technologies that are most likely to predict the development of economic systems. Foresight technologies based on a combination of strategic analysis and forecasting of key indicators provide a high level of probability of achieving certain results and contribute to shaping conditions for their achievement. Among economic systems, tourism sector is the most vulnerable to the negative impact of the global pandemic. In 2020, its revenues fell by 70%, leading to an unprecedented crisis. Accordingly, questions arise about the Ukrainian tourism sector’s ability to use the crisis as a prerequisite for recovery and growth.Based on the results of a two-round survey using the Delphi method among experts (56 at the first stage and 42 at the second) representing various tourism directions for Ukraine’s tourism sector up to 2030, six strategic development priorities were formed. Key indicators were identified, such as contribution to GDP (7-8%), place in the global tourism competitiveness rating (60-70th position among 140 countries), and average annual growth rate of international arrivals (5-10%). It has been determined that in case of the end of the world pandemic, the Ukrainian tourism sector can achieve the indicators of “pre-crisis” functioning in 1-3 years.The proposed architectonics of the foresight platform in the context of digitalization of network communications will ensure the adoption of management decisions to develop Ukraine’s tourism sector in the domestic and international markets. It will strengthen its position, image, and strategic sustainability in the markets for tourist services. AcknowledgmentThe paper reflects the results of the authors in the framework of studies conducted in 2018–2020 at the Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics by order of the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine (Paradigmatic and Conceptual Shifts in the Economic Theory of the 21st Century) (Q1 2018 – Q4 2020; state registration number 0118U000126), and Formation of the National Brand of Ukraine in the International Environment (Q1 2018 – Q4 2020; state registration number 0118U000127)).

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“…During the initial modelling phase, the research objective was formulated and approved; theoretical evidence and statistics were collected, and expert surveys were carried out. As a result of data processing, a set of vertices Agricultural production Manager V 13 Labor market Outrageous V 14 The salary Managed V 15 Population income Basic V 16 Inter-municipal differentiation Outrageous V 17 Regional migration Outrageous V 18 Investment climate Basic V 19 State policy in the field of improving the quality of life Manager V 20 Security (economic, social, environmental, legal) Outrageous V 21 Geopolitical situation Outrageous…”

Section: Development Of the Slandql Cognitive Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Cognitive modelling of complex objects includes development of a cognitive model of the system under the study (signed directed graph, functional graph); analysis of the developed model properties (complexity, stability, sensitivity); analysis of paths and cycles; scenario modelling; making the decision on the selection of the scenario most feasible for the implementation [9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using cognitive maps to study issues concerning the improvement of the quality of life of population in the frame of interregional disparities

Tyushnyakov

Tkachenko

2020

SRIT

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This paper studies issues of the rise in the standards of living and improvement of the quality of life of the population in the frame of intermunicipal disparities. Simulation and modelling are examined in relation to research of standards of living and quality of life. Tools of cognitive modelling and simulation are used to acquire new knowledge on the regional social and economic, ecological, and political system which determines the standards of living and quality of life. A cognitive model studying the quality of life was designed and its structural properties were analyzed. Scenarios were created to model possible developments of the situation under the influence of various factors. The novelty of the work is in applying a new informational technology of cognitive modelling to studying the improvement of the quality of life in the frame of intermunicipal disparities.

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Scientific Foresight and Cognitive Modeling of Socio-Economic Systems

Cited by 19 publications

References 1 publication

Statement the Problem of Simulation of Decision-Making Processes in Complex Organizational-Technical Systems

Statement the Problem of Simulation of Decision-Making Processes in Complex Organizational-Technical Systems

Foresight technologies of economic systems: evidence from the tourism sector of Ukraine

Using cognitive maps to study issues concerning the improvement of the quality of life of population in the frame of interregional disparities

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