Screening tactics in a water management policy analysis for the Netherlands

Abstract

Large policy studies generally involve too many alternative policies to examine each in detail. As a result, such studies often include a step in which policy options (tactics) that are clearly unattractive are screened out. The output from this step is a small list of tactics that deserve a more thorough evaluation. We describe the screening of tactics to change the movement and storage of water in the lakes and waterways of the Netherlands. This analysis was part of a larger study to help the Dutch government develop a new water management policy. The screening process for each tactic involved obtaining an upper bound on the expected annual benefits from the tactic under various assumptions about future water demands (UB) and comparing this upper bound with the tactic's annualized fixed cost (AFC). If the AFC was less than the UB, the tactic was considered promising and was retained for further analysis. If not, the tactic was screened out. Results from the screening analysis informed policy decisions that will avoid investment expenditures of hundreds of millions of dollars and will reduce agricultural damage by about $15 million/year.