Sea ice transport: A highly variable link between Arctic and North Atlantic

Hilmer, Michael; Harder, Markus; Lemke, Peter

doi:10.1029/98gl52360

Cited by 83 publications

(69 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…Variations in the Barents Sea ice have been attributed to a number of processes, including large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies (Maslanik et al 2007;Deser and Teng 2008;Zhang et al 2008), cyclone activity (Sorteberg and Kvingedal 2006;Simmonds and Keay 2009), local winds and ice import from the Arctic Ocean (Hilmer et al 1998;Koenigk et al 2009;Kwok 2009), and oceanic heat anomalies generated locally (Schlichtholz 2011) or advected into the Barents Sea (Vinje 2001;Kauker et al 2003;Francis and Hunter 2007). Numerical simulations demonstrate that the interannual variability and longer-term decrease in the sea ice area reflect the variability of the Atlantic inflow (Årthun and Schrum 2010;Sandø et al 2010;Årthun et al 2012;Koenigk and Brodeau 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predictability of the Barents Sea Ice in Early Winter: Remote Effects of Oceanic and Atmospheric Thermal Conditions from the North Atlantic

2014

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Predictability of sea ice concentrations (SICs) in the Barents Sea in early winter (November-December) is studied using canonical correlation analysis with atmospheric and ocean anomalies from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data. It is found that the highest prediction skill for a single-predictor model is obtained from the 13-month lead subsurface temperature at 200-m depth (T200) and the in-phase meridional surface wind (V sfc ). T200 skillfully predicts SIC variability in 35% of the Barents Sea, mainly in the eastern side. The T200 for negative sea ice anomalies exhibits warm anomalies in the subsurface ocean temperature downstream of the Norwegian Atlantic Slope Current (NwASC) on a decadal time scale. The diagnostic analysis of NCEP CFSR data suggests that the subsurface temperature anomaly stored below the thermocline during summer reemerges in late autumn by atmospheric cooling and affects the sea ice. The subsurface temperature anomaly of the NwASC is advected from the North Atlantic subpolar gyre over ;3 years. Also, V sfc skillfully predicts SIC variability in 32% of the Barents Sea, mainly in the western side. The V sfc for the negative sea ice anomalies exhibits southerly wind anomalies; V sfc is related to the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns from the subtropical North Atlantic to the Eurasian continent. This study suggests that both atmospheric and oceanic remote effects have a potential impact on the forecasting accuracy of SIC.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predictability of the Barents Sea Ice in Early Winter: Remote Effects of Oceanic and Atmospheric Thermal Conditions from the North Atlantic

2014

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“…The simulated ocean could be different from the observed ocean. For interannual variability studies, multiyear simulations using either analyzed atmospheric parameters or a mixture of climatologies and analyzed atmospheric parameters have been carried out by several investigators Hilmer et al, 1998]. The initial conditions play a role similar to that in multiyear simulation of seasonal variation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A modeling study of upper ocean winter processes in the Labrador Sea

Tang¹,

Gui²,

DeTracey³

1999

J. Geophys. Res.

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These studies point to the importance of understanding the processes involving heat and water/salt transfer between the atmosphere, sea ice, and the upper ocean in the Labrador Sea.In this paper, we conduct a modeling study of several winter processes in the upper ocean which are important to climate change study of the subarctic North Atlantic. From the model results, we hope to gain a better understanding of the factors that control the processes. Three aspects of air-ice-ocean interaction in the Labrador Sea will be addressed in particular: (1) the surface mixed layer, (2) salinity effects, and (3)

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“…The latter mode is somewhat similar to the positive NAO pattern. As discussed by Cavalieri and Häkkinen [2001] and also noted by others [Häkkinen, 1993;Hilmer et al, 1998], the extension of low pressure into the Barents Sea provides the forcing for ice export through Fram Strait. The results presented show that the phase of zonal wave 1 at high latitudes is a highly consistent measure of this extension of low pressure into the Barents Sea and as such provides a useful index for monitoring ice export through Fram Strait.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 69%

A link between Fram Strait sea ice export and atmospheric planetary wave phase

Cavalieri¹

2002

Geophysical Research Letters

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[1] A link is found between the variability of Fram Strait sea ice export and the phase of zonal wave 1 in SLP for the period 1958 -1997. Previous studies have found that the link between ice export through Fram Strait and the NAO is inconsistent over time scales longer than the last two decades. Inconsistent and low correlations are also found between Fram Strait ice export and the AO index. The phase of zonal wave 1 explains 60% -70% of the simulated ice export variance after the removal of two anomalous phases in 1966 and 1967. Unlike the NAO and AO links, these high variances are consistent for both the first and second halves of the 40-year period. This consistency is attributed to the sensitivity of wave-1 phase to the presence of secondary low pressure systems in the Barents Sea that serve to drive Arctic sea ice southward through Fram Strait.

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Sea ice transport: A highly variable link between Arctic and North Atlantic

Abstract: Abstract.The variability of the ice volume flux into the northeast Atlantic is investigated with an optimized dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model using 40 years

Cited by 83 publications

References 12 publications

Predictability of the Barents Sea Ice in Early Winter: Remote Effects of Oceanic and Atmospheric Thermal Conditions from the North Atlantic

Predictability of the Barents Sea Ice in Early Winter: Remote Effects of Oceanic and Atmospheric Thermal Conditions from the North Atlantic

A modeling study of upper ocean winter processes in the Labrador Sea

A link between Fram Strait sea ice export and atmospheric planetary wave phase

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