Sea level modeling in the Kazakhstan part of the Caspian Sea using the MIKE 21 model

Abstract

The article presents the results of adaptation of the MIKE 21 Flow Model FM hydrodynamic module of the MIKE Zero software package to the Caspian Sea region using reanalysis data of wind and pressure fields, both for individual years and for a long-term period (2000–2020). The quality of modeling results was assessed using the statistical methods. The correlation coefficient between observed and simulated water levels for the period of 2000–2020 was 0,97 for Fort Shevchenko and 0,95 for Aktau. Model calibration allowed obtaining optimal values of model parameters, such as the Smagorinsky turbulent viscosity coefficient of 0,5 and the Manning roughness coefficient of 0,031. The evaluation for the multi-year period and the individual cases demonstrated that the modeling quality criteria were within acceptable limits. The results of the model verification based on the data for 2000–2020 and its testing for the storm surge on March 5–7, 2022, indicated that in the future the MIKE Zero software package could be used for operational sea level forecasting.