Seasonality shift and streamflow flow variability trends in central India

Kuriqi, Alban; Ali, Rawshan; Pham, Quoc Bao; Gambini, Julio Isaac Montenegro; Gupta, Vivek; Malik, Anurag; Linh, Nguyễn Thị Thùy; Joshi, Yogesh; Anh, Duong Tran; Nam, Van Thai; Dong, Xiaohua

doi:10.1007/s11600-020-00475-4

Cited by 93 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 60 publications

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“…The significance level for trends was set at 5% in this study (|Z|>1.96). However, the MK test has limitations; its significance is affected by the presence of autocorrelation [57,58].…”

Section: Mann-kendall Trend Detection Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in Different Grades of Precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin from 1960 to 2017

Dong

Tian

et al. 2021

Atmosphere

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Under the background of global warming, the trends and variabilities of different grades of precipitation have significant effects on the management of regional ecosystems and water resources. Based on a daily precipitation dataset collected from 148 meteorological stations in the Yangtze River Basin from 1960 to 2017, precipitation events were divided into four grades (small, moderate, large, and heavy precipitation events) according to the precipitation intensity to analyze the temporal and spatial change trends of different grades of precipitation amounts and frequencies, and the influence of different grades of precipitation on total precipitation was also discussed in this study. The results revealed that small precipitation amounts over the Yangtze River Basin decreased significantly, with a rate of −1.22%/10a, while heavy precipitation amounts showed a significant increasing trend (4.27%/10a) during the study period. The precipitation frequency of small and total events decreased significantly, with rates of −3.86%/10a and −2.97%/10a, respectively. Regionally, from the upper reaches to the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin, the contribution rate of small precipitation amounts and frequencies to the total precipitation gradually decreased, while heavy precipitation amounts and frequencies increased. The different grades of precipitation in region II showed a decreasing trend due to its unique geographical features. Furthermore, a Pearson correlation analysis was used to analyze the response of precipitation to long-term air temperature, demonstrating that small and moderate precipitation amounts and frequencies were mainly negatively correlated with long-term air temperature and that heavy precipitation amounts showed a stronger positive correlation with long-term air temperature (13.35%/K). Based on this, the rate of change in heavy precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin may be higher under the background of climate warming, which will lead to greater risks of extreme floods in the future. Evaluating and predicting the trends of different grades can provide a theoretical reference for agricultural production, flood control, and drought mitigation.

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“…The significance level for trends was set at 5% in this study (|Z|>1.96). However, the MK test has limitations; its significance is affected by the presence of autocorrelation [57,58].…”

Section: Mann-kendall Trend Detection Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in Different Grades of Precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin from 1960 to 2017

Dong

Tian

et al. 2021

Atmosphere

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“…The study found that a statistically significant increase in Nefas Mocha and Addis Zemen for mean annual temperature. Kuriqi et al (2020) applied the MK methodology to validate findings from Sen's slope trend analysis in a study on the seasonality shift and streamflow flow variability trends in India.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and trend analysis of temperature: the case of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Alemu

Dioha

2020

Environ Syst Res

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Background This paper presents the trend analysis of temperature and the effect of climate variation in the city of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The paper seeks to provide up-to-date information for the better management of climate change in the city. The analysis is based on the temperature difference in the city over two stations—Bole and Entoto. The overall purpose of this study is to investigate the possible trend of temperature variation as well as the effect of climate change in the study area. Method The Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test and Sen's slope estimate were employed to find the nature of the temperature trend and significance level in the city. Results It was found that the MK2/MK3 statistic (Z) value for minimum, maximum and average temperatures for Bole station are 6.21/5.99, 2.49/2.6, and 6.09/6.14 respectively. The positive Kendall's Z value shows an upward trend and implies an increasing trend over time. This indicates a significant increase in the trend at a 5% level of significance since the significance level (alpha) is greater than the computed p-value (0.05 > p-values (0.0001)). Whereas for Entoto station, the MK1 statistic (Z) results are 1.64 for minimum, while the MK2/MK3 static (Z) are 0.71/0.65 for the maximum, and 0.17/1.04 for average temperature, and this positive value shows an indicator of an increasing trend. However, the increase is not significant at the 5% significant level since the computed p-value is larger than the significant level (alpha = 0.05). Conclusions There is a tendency of temperature increments in Bole station. This could be due to the influence of climate change which can lead to weather extremes in the capital city. Therefore, the study recommends that the variability of temperature needs further monitoring technique, and there is a need to consider the increasing temperature trend to minimize its effects on human health.

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“…The stationarity behaviour of rainfall is also checked using the Kwiatkowsk--Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test (Kwiatowski et al 1992). The statistical tests mentioned in this analysis are well documented in the literature (Kwiatowski et al 1992;Yue et al 2002;Cunderlik & Burn 2004;Rao et al 2004;Novotny & Stefan 2007;Kuriqi et al 2020;Malik et al 2020aMalik et al , 2020b. In this study, all the statistics of the tests are checked for 5% significance level.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 95%

Spatio-temporal change in rainfall over five different climatic regions of India

Ray

Goel

2021

Journal of Water and Climate Change

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The present study deals with the estimation of dependences, spatio-temporal trends, change points, and stationarity in rainfall and rainy day series (1901–2013) for five (out of six) different climatic regions of India. Only one-fourth of the station rainfall and rainy day datasets exhibits long-term dependence on an annual and seasonal basis. The presence of lag-one serial correlation is prominent for almost all the climatic regions of India. The significant decreasing trend is found mainly for the stations of semi-arid and humid sub-tropical regions. The magnitude of rainfall is decreasing for most parts of the study area by 10% for annual and monsoon seasons. The change point is presented in a smaller number of stations. Non-stationary behaviour is observed for the rainy day series of semi-arid and humid sub-tropical regions, which may increase the temporal variability of rainfall over the same regions. The findings of this study could be very useful for the planning and management of water resources of different climatic regions of India.

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Seasonality shift and streamflow flow variability trends in central India

Cited by 93 publications

References 60 publications

Trends in Different Grades of Precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin from 1960 to 2017

Trends in Different Grades of Precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin from 1960 to 2017

Climate change and trend analysis of temperature: the case of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Spatio-temporal change in rainfall over five different climatic regions of India

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