Secular Stagnation: Determinants and Consequences for Australia

Abstract

Slack OECD economic performance and weaker macroeconomic policy support Summers's reuse of the phrase ‘secular stagnation’. Globalisation has redirected growth towards emerging economies, and anticipated rates of return on investment are impaired by perceived risk, institutionalised risk aversion, ageing and dependency, declining commitments to public investment and research and development with rising shares directed to health, retained trade distortions, industrial concentration and slower human capital accumulation, not to mention unexpected global abundance of fossil fuels and a slower Chinese economy. The information and literature supporting these concerns is reviewed and implications for global and Australian policy are inferred.

State Capacity and American Technology: Evidence from the Nineteenth Century

“…This picture changes dramatically when we add four lags of post office in column 2. 2 Now the second lag is positive and 2 Because the gap between different years in our panel is not even, we also estimated these models normalizing the effects of different lags by the inverse of the distance with the next date. These modified models are not reported 2,197 2,197 2,197 2,197 Notes significant at 10 percent.…”

Automation and inequality in China

“…Central to this model are the early specialization of production in light manufacturing, requiring high trade dependence to meet more diversified home consumption and investment demands, and foreign direct investment, which enables "catch-up" technical change. This comparative openness to both trade and financial flows yields strong exposure to trends in technology and economic policy in the rest of the world (Taylor and Tyers 2017).…”

Untitled

“…Все это хорошо подтверждается растущим объемом данных, свидетельствующих о начале долгосрочной тенденции к замедлению темпов научно-технического и экономического роста (см., например: Крылов 1999;2002;Панов 2009;Акаев 2010;Коротаев, Малков, Халтурина 2007;Коротаев и др. 2010;Коротаев, Билюга 2016;Huebner 2005;Khaltourina, Korotayev 2007;Maddison 2007;Modis 2002;Gordon 2012;Teulings, Baldwin 2014;Piketty 2014;Le-Poire 2005;Summers 2016;Cervellati et al 2017;Taylor, Tyers 2017;Jones 2018;Popović 2018 etc. ).…”