Securing the future in the anthropocene: A critical analysis of the millennium ecosystem assessment scenarios

Abstract

This commentary analyzes the ontological character of the United Nations ' Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) and its attempt to imagine business-as-usual and transformative human-environmental futures. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) constitutes the first and most significant attempt by an international political body to incorporate environmental concerns into the field of imaginative scenario building. In addition to its lengthy report on the threatened status of planetary ecosystems, the MA contains extensive "future scenarios" that imagine how human-environmental relations might unfold over the course of the twenty-first century. These scenarios arise out of the lineage of military scenarios generated during the Cold War, and continue to inform UN assessments in the present. This commentary explores how a politico-military concern for security informs the framework of the scenarios, and limits how the MA characterizes the fundamental human act of narration. In the process, the commentary explores alternative ontologies of narration and how these may lead to more transformative narratological interventions.

Imagination and transformations to sustainable and just futures

“…The authors illustrate how the choices and facilitation of these imaginative exercises is political-it matters who can and does initiate or claim control of collective imagination processes. For example, some methods may build and expand imagination, some may constrain it or "lock into" a dominant, existing imaginary, while others simply focus on engaging with existing patterns of sensemaking (Milkoreit, 2017;Galafassi et al, 2018;Marzec, 2018;Pigott, 2018;Pereira et al, 2019).…”

“…None of the papers in this collection explore the potential of agents to use imagination in combination with power to obstruct transformation, although we suggest this is an artifact of the specific cases examined by authors rather than any indication that such obstruction does not exist. Pigott (2018) and Marzec (2018) do, however, point to the risk of reinforcing current systems and their problems in imagination processes rather than opening up pathways to truly novel futures. Additionally, Pigott (2018) offers an insightful analysis of a national government (Wales)-an actor with a special set of power, authority, and other resources-attempting to shape the national imagination of sustainability.…”

“…Across the Special Feature, the discussion on narrative and storytelling reveals an ongoing tension about the future in relation to transformation. As Dasilva (2018) shows, the future in sci-fi films is often dystopian, but in policy and practice, both Marzec (2018) and Pigott (2018) point to not only positive and utopian visions but even an overly light-hearted approach to representing an imagined future and the transformation process to move toward sustainability and justice. Earlier, we discussed the relationship between these forms of narrative and the emotions they may trigger and the likelihood it mobilizes agency.…”

“…Earlier, we discussed the relationship between these forms of narrative and the emotions they may trigger and the likelihood it mobilizes agency. However, these articles also make central the point that although imagination is often associated with momentary departures from reality (Zittoun and Cerchia, 2013) or with creative forms of expression, narratives of imagination are also often shaped by bureaucratic policy processes, such as the Inter-governmental Panel on Biodiversity and Ecosystems Services (Pereira et al, 2018), fossil fuel divestment (Mangat and Dalby, 2018), the Millennium Assessment (Marzec, 2018), and national sustainability policy in Wales (Pigott, 2018). Together, these analyses illuminate a challenge-both overly optimistic and overly pessimistic imagined futures may evoke a similar effect, in that they feel too decoupled from the actual, collective present to enable people to feel connected to them.…”

“…As Marzec (2018) and Pereira et al (2019) show, these embodied and experiential methods are increasingly applied in processes that have historically been dominated by scientific rationales. Reinforcing the criticism of the hegemony of Western scientific thought, especially the central role of integrated assessment models in scientific advice for global environmental governance, the authors challenge such dominant approaches by demonstrating the value and potential contribution of more diverse types of meaning making for exploring possible futures.…”