Security Risks of Environmental Crises: Environment of Peace (Part 2)

Abstract

This research report is a product of the Environment of Peace initiative launched by SIPRI in May 2020. It sets out the evidence base that provided the foundation for Environment of Peace: Security in a New Era of Risk, a policy report published in May 2022. The report is published in four parts-Elements of a Planetary Emergency (part 1); Security Risks of Environmental Crises (part 2); Navigating a Just and Peaceful Transition (part 3); and Enabling an Environment of Peace (part 4)-as outlined below. Elements of a Planetary EmergencyPart 1 lays out the conceptual and evidential landscape for Environment of Peace, bringing together data on a wide range of indicators, showing that both security and environmental stresses are increasing. Security Risks of Environmental CrisesThis part, part 2, shows how combinations of environmental and security phenomena are generating complex risks. Through a theoretical framework informed by the literature, Cedric de Coning, Research Professor at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI), and his team explore different pathways from environmental stress to conflict and how the darkening security horizon and environmental crises are interacting to generate different types of risk: compound, cascading, emergent, systemic and existential. The analysis is supported by numerous case studies, spanning a variety of social-ecological systems and different types of risks. This part of the report also discusses options for responding to these complex risks. Navigating a Just and Peaceful TransitionPart 3 focuses on needed transitions towards sustainability and climate resilience, with special attention given to areas such as land use, energy and climate response. Enabling an Environment of PeacePart 4 examines the legal and institutional landscape within which the twin crises-and humanity's responses to them-play out. Other related materialsSeparate annexes assemble a number of in-depth case studies and other input papers that were commissioned to inform the research and analysis of the report.