Seismic and wind vulnerability assessment for the GAR-13 global risk assessment

Liu, Yamin; Hurtado, Alvaro; Barbat, Álex H.; Cardona, Omar D.

doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2014.05.007

Cited by 20 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…Impact functions for the assessment of direct economic damage caused by TCs usually relate wind speed to relative damage (Emanuel, 2011). For the USA, TC impact functions are available specific to different building types (Federal Emergency Management Authority [FEMA], 2010;Yamin et al, 2014), as well as on an aggregate level (Emanuel, 2011). found a lack of sensitivity of simulated TC 55 damage to the exact shape of the impact function for the USA.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…found a lack of sensitivity of simulated TC 55 damage to the exact shape of the impact function for the USA. However, due to global heterogeneities in the tropical cyclone climatology (Schreck et al, 2014), building codes, and other socioeconomic vulnerability factors (Yamin et al, 2014), one universal impact function might be inappropriate for global TC risk assessments. Bakkensen et al (2018b) used reported damage data to calibrate TC impact functions for China, highlighting both the potential of this approach and the considerable uncertainties related to the quality of reported damage data.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Regional tropical cyclone impact functions for globally consistent risk assessments

Eberenz¹,

Lüthi²,

Bresch³

2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Assessing the adverse impacts caused by tropical cyclones has become increasingly important, as both climate change and human coastal development increase the damage potential. In order to assess tropical cyclone risk, direct economic damage is frequently modelled based on hazard intensity, asset exposure and vulnerability, the latter represented by impact functions. In this study, we show that assessing tropical cyclone risk on a global level with one single impact function calibrated for the USA – which is a typical approach in many recent studies – is problematic, biasing the simulated damages by as much as a factor of 36 in the North West Pacific. Thus, tropical cyclone risk assessments should always consider regional differences in vulnerability, too. This study proposes a calibrated model to adequately assess tropical cyclone risk in different regions by fitting regional impact functions based on reported damage data. Applying regional calibrated impact functions within the risk modelling framework CLIMADA at a resolution of 10 km worldwide, we find global annual average direct damage caused by tropical cyclones to range from 51 up to 121 billion USD (current value of 2014, 1980–2017), with the largest uncertainties in the West Pacific basin, where the calibration results are the least robust. To better understand the challenges in the West Pacific and to complement the global perspective of this study, we explore uncertainties and limitations entailed in the modelling setup for the case of the Philippines. While using wind as a proxy for tropical cyclone hazard proves to be a valid approach in general, the case of the Philippines reveals limitations of the model and calibration due to the lack of an explicit representation of sub-perils such as storm surge, torrential rainfall, and landslides. The globally consistent methodology and calibrated regional impact functions are available online as a Python package, ready for application in practical contexts like physical risk disclosure and providing more credible information for climate adaptation studies.

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confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

Regional tropical cyclone impact functions for globally consistent risk assessments

Eberenz¹,

Lüthi²,

Bresch³

2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Exposure is represented using the common dataset of the GAR 2015, in which it is represented as a group of buildings in each point or cell of analysis with a resolution of 5 km × 5 km. Vulnerability is represented by IDFs relating maximum wind velocity sustained for 5 s gusts at 10 m above ground level (Yamin et al, 2014). Since the results are only for current conditions, future DRR measures are not included.…”

Section: Tropical Cyclonesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Their primary output is in map form, with the most elevated impacts found in many of the same locations as in the study of Nadim et al (2004Nadim et al ( , 2006, although they find higher impacts in terms of total GDP in China. Yang et al (2015) assess risk in terms of fatalities for the current period at a resolution of 0.25…”

Section: Landslidesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Review article: Natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale

Ward

Blauhut

Bloemendaal

et al. 2020

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

196

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Abstract. Since 1990, natural hazards have led to over 1.6 million fatalities globally, and economic losses are estimated at an average of around USD 260–310 billion per year. The scientific and policy communities recognise the need to reduce these risks. As a result, the last decade has seen a rapid development of global models for assessing risk from natural hazards at the global scale. In this paper, we review the scientific literature on natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale, and we specifically examine whether and how they have examined future projections of hazard, exposure, and/or vulnerability. In doing so, we examine similarities and differences between the approaches taken across the different hazards, and we identify potential ways in which different hazard communities can learn from each other. For example, there are a number of global risk studies focusing on hydrological, climatological, and meteorological hazards that have included future projections and disaster risk reduction measures (in the case of floods), whereas fewer exist in the peer-reviewed literature for global studies related to geological hazards. On the other hand, studies of earthquake and tsunami risk are now using stochastic modelling approaches to allow for a fully probabilistic assessment of risk, which could benefit the modelling of risk from other hazards. Finally, we discuss opportunities for learning from methods and approaches being developed and applied to assess natural hazard risks at more continental or regional scales. Through this paper, we hope to encourage further dialogue on knowledge sharing between disciplines and communities working on different hazards and risk and at different spatial scales.

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“…This research uses a total of 35 vulnerability functions (see Table 2 and Figure 5) developed in previous projects conducted by Universidad de los Andes for the World Bank. 47,48 The characterization of the physical vulnerability entails the definition of the relationship between the damage level and the seismic intensity (SI). The damage is represented in terms of the mean damage ratio (MDR), and by its corresponding standard deviation.…”

Section: Vulnerability Functionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integration of 3D large‐scale earthquake simulations into the assessment of the seismic risk of Bogota, Colombia

Riaño

Reyes

Liu

et al. 2020

Earthq Engng Struct Dyn

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Bogotá, the capital city of Colombia, is mostly located on a lacustrine soil deposit surrounded by hills in a central plateau of the eastern cordillera of the Colombian Andes. This highly populated urban area is exposed to a significant seismic hazard from local and regional fault systems. In addition, the potential ground motion amplification during earthquakes due to the presence of soft soil deposits, along with the effects of the surface and subsurface topography, can strongly influence the seismic hazard and consequently the seismic risk to the city. This study aims to develop a physics-based framework to generate synthetic ground records that can help better understand the seismic response of the basin and other amplification effects during strong earthquake shaking in the region, and to incorporate these effects into the estimation of seismic risk. To this end, a set of simulations were first conducted on Hercules, the wave propagation octree-based finite element simulator developed by the Quake Group at Carnegie Mellon University, to identify the impacts of hypothetical strong earthquakes scenarios. Then, the results from these simulations were integrated with the exposure and vulnerability information previously developed for the main building constructions in the city to assess the seismic risk in the region under different conditions of analysis. Results from this more detailed model are compared with previously published results from simplified models. Sensitivity analyses help identify critical aspects that should be considered in the future to improve the seismic risk assessment of infrastructure.

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Seismic and wind vulnerability assessment for the GAR-13 global risk assessment

Cited by 20 publications

References 11 publications

Regional tropical cyclone impact functions for globally consistent risk assessments

Regional tropical cyclone impact functions for globally consistent risk assessments

Review article: Natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale

Integration of 3D large‐scale earthquake simulations into the assessment of the seismic risk of Bogota, Colombia

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